Less is Moore (The Offseason in Review!) Part 1

This off-season for Dayton Moore, while busy, could be defined by minimalism, by "less." But we'll get to that. It has certainly been Moore's best off-season with the Royals (which admittedly did not require much), and that despite signing Jeff Francoeur, which had been predicted by Royals fans (and even called for by brilliant Royals fan and blogger Rany Jazayerli, here) since things began souring between him and the Braves in early 2009. Yes, Mission 2012 (or 2013) is inching ever closer and while at the end of the off-season last year, Sports Illustrated rated Moore the worst GM in baseball, today he presides over the #1 farm system according to Baseball America and pretty much everyone else in the world. SI may want to move him up a few spots.

By now, the entire baseball world is very familiar with GMDM's history of questionable acquisitions (Guillen, Betancourt, the Farnsworth signing, the Horacio Ramirez deal, etc.) and there's no need to rehash it--this is going to be long enough as it is. But for the record it's a reversal of the Jekyll and Hyde situation.

Barring something totally out of the [powder] blue, the Royals appear done making moves and are ready to take what they have into spring training. So for practical purposes, the off-season is over. Thus we can begin picking it apart!

Every move this off-season has been made with the prospects in mind, which is in itself an improvement. None of the Royals' FA signings are more than one year deals and the trades have all been reasonable if some would call them underwhelming (for the record, I'm relatively happy with them). The biggest worry we all had was that Moore might sign someone that would end up blocking one of the prospects but instead he's done exactly the right thing-- gone after bargain free agents with rebound potential on one year deals. Worst-case scenario, they don't rebound and the Royals cut them loose after the year is up. Best-case scenario, they DO rebound and the Royals can deal them at the trade deadline or sign them long-term if they're somehow really too good to pass up (case in point, Wilson Betemit's bizarre 2010). Moore has kept the spending at a minimum and really done only what's necessary to avoid rushing the prospects this off-season and field a major league team, realizing that it's now just a matter of letting the farm system (hopefully) do its magic. Doing as little as necessary has defined this off-season. Less is more.

Now that we're through all that, the Royals' off-season moves in chronological order (now with more analysis!):


Trading David DeJesus for Vin Mazzaro and Justin Marks- This deal with the A's has elicited mostly negative reviews and it's understandable to a point. DeJesus was eerily consistent in his time with the Royals, from 2004-2008 on-basing between .351-.366, taking a slight dip to .344 in 2009 and topping out last year at .384. He slugged between .430 and .450 nearly every year and he generally was a productive outfielder who could play all three spots. Last year was a career year for him, putting up a .318/.384/.443 line in 91 games before colliding with the wall in New York. He was also the Royal who would been with the organization the longest and a sentimental favorite of the KC community in general.

However, DeJesus was also nearing the end of his contract and would have cost $6 million in 2011 and carry a similar price once he hit free agency the year after. At 30 years old and not looking to compete in 2011 or maybe even in 2012 and coming off that career year, it made perfect sense for the Royals to sell high. Many were looking forward to it, believing he could bring a big return at the trade deadline, but unfortunately he tore a tendon in his thumb just before the deadline and had to go to the DL for the remainder of the season. The injury undoubtedly drove the price down for him and most of the negativity surrounding the deal is due to the seemingly small return. Some thought the Royals could've waited and gotten more. Of course, we'll never know.

The Royals netted Mazzaro and Marks in the deal, Mazzaro being the key component. Mazzaro, only 24, doesn't become a free agent until 2015 and has had some about league average innings at the major league level. In the minors he relied largely on getting ground balls from his sinker and had success, though in the majors he seems to have lost that. And missing his main weapon, Mazzaro has struck out only 5.8 per 9 innings, and walked nearly 4, which simply isn't very good. If he can regain his sink, he could regain some real value though if the Lethal Lefties (we're still working on a nickname for the Royals many talented lefty pitching prospects) pan out he would probably slide in as a #4 or #5 in the rotation. He will probably be the Royals 4th man in the rotation this year. Any improvement and thus any value from Mazzaro depends on pitching coach Bob McClure who has a mixed record of success (Greinke, Meche pre-injury, Tejeda, Soria) and failure (Bannister, Davies, Colon). Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Justin Marks is not just a throw in, with decent peripherals (more than 1 K/IP but over 3 BB/9 as well) and will likely start 2011 in A or A+ at just 22 years old. He pitched well at Louisville in college and he's a lefty which GMs just love. He needs some polish, his ERA in the minors has so far been unimpressive but that doesn't tell the whole story. In a couple of years he could really be worth watching.

All in all, the deal felt rushed, Moore pulling the trigger in November, but those jumping to call it a huge loss for the Royals are off-base. Worst-case scenario, Mazzaro doesn't improve and he provides just below league average innings-eating until he gets unseated by one of the prospects and Marks goes nowhere. Best case, Mazzaro gets his sink back and becomes a fringe #3 while Marks turns into a bullpen arm or a back of the rotation starter. The A's know almost exactly what they're getting in DeJesus for the year they've got him (barring an extension). His numbers shouldn't decrease too much over the next few years, given his skill set-he hits for good average with solid plate discipline and good instincts in the field. Those are the kind of skills that age well. He'll provide some veteran presence for their many young guys as well, but they'll have a tough time competing against the Rangers in the AL West if you ask me. But divisional predictions is a post for another time (near the end of spring training). In any case, the A's probably win this trade but it's not quite as clear cut as everyone seems to think.


Nathan Adcock taken from the Rule 5 Draft- Not a lot to be said here. Adcock is 22 and will likely spend the year in the minors if a deal is worked out (similar to Edgar Osuna last year) and has several pitches that could develop into league average or plus and some think, due to his size, he can increase his velocity on his fastball which currently tops out at 92. Adcock has learned some control evidenced by his  BB/9 rate, 2.4 last year, and his K rate isn't bad (over 7 per 9 innings) either. Could turn into a decent starter with a couple more years of seasoning and growth. The worry though, that Adcock would have to fill a valuable spot on the active roster combined with the DeJesus deal was enough to make one believe this off-season for Moore might just be a "next verse, same as the first (and second, and third...)" kind of scenario.

But then things began to turn.

Jeff Francoeur signs- Oh, the marriage the baseball world had been expecting for two years now finally happened alright. Moore's love for Frenchy among ex-Braves has never been a secret, but even as big a joke as this was for some and the worry this would naturally raise among Royals fans, the deal turned out to be surprisingly okay. Dayton gave Frenchy $2.5 million for one year and a mutual option for $4 million, which I can only assume is to fill some arbitrary word count Dayton sets for all his contracts, given how many mutual options he's handed out in his career. If Frenchy rebounds this year, he'll decline because he'll be worth more than $4 million. If he doesn't, the Royals will decline. In any case he brings his famous laser-rocket-cannon arm to right field and some veteran leadership along with his depressing ideas about on-base percentage. But maybe he'll get better since at the K we do show OBP on the scoreboard! A man can dream. But seriously, he does seem to have wised up some if his words here can be trusted. He's definitely an entertaining guy and great for the clubhouse if nothing else. He's not blocking any prospects this year (Wil Myers will probably spend the entire season in the minors but might be a September call-up) and if he's doing decent at all will probably be flipped at the deadline. Though most wouldn't have expected it, signing Francoeur turned out surprisingly...I'll say it. It turned out positively.

Melky Cabrera signs- The Melkman signed not long after Frenchy and was presumably going to be a place-holder in center field this year as well, because apparently the Royals weren't fond of Blanco or Dyson taking the role. Given how much love Dyson seemed to get from the organization it was a little surprising, but evidently the Royals for some reason promised Cabrera the role outright--not just the opportunity to win it and practically guaranteeing it, which is rare. Obviously, Zack Greinke forcing a trade, which will be discussed in the next post, changed things considerably. The worry here is that Ned Yost might honor his promise and start Cabrera despite the situation changing considerably. In any case, he's signed for one year and $1.25 million. Let's say this another way. Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur COMBINED are making what Jason Kendall is going to make this year. Sigh.

The Royals are obviously all-in on this youth movement, so I would be surprised (albeit mildly given some of the decisions we've seen on the major league level the last couple years) if Lorenzo Cain didn't start over Cabrera in center. Cain beginning in AAA and coming up later is a possibility, but he'll get the job sometime this year. Cabrera is a speed bump at worst and if he does anything he'll be flipped at the deadline just like Frenchy.

Check back in a few days for an in depth look at the Greinke trade.