Less is Moore (The Offseason in Review!) Part 2

Quick and Unrelated: Rob Neyer, a blogger and writer for ESPN over the last 15 years is leaving the network. He has been hired as editor at www.sbnation.com though so there's that. He's been one of the best and most influential people over there since he began, a pioneer of internet sportswriting and he also happens to be a sabermetrician and Royals fan. It's an interesting trick of fate that a significant portion of the sabermetric community are Royals fans--it's certainly one of the most saber-friendly fan bases of the 30. It follows basic tragicomedy that the Royals front office is one of the least. In this case, correlation may be causation.

Anyway.

The most defining and controversial part of the off-season was the Zack Greinke trade. It wasn't anything any Royals fans particularly wanted- certainly Moore and Yost didn't want it either. But Zack did, and when GMDM's hand was forced, he made sure the deal fell in line with the plan. So without further adeu.

The Zack Greinke Trade- The Greinke trade saga started innocently enough, at least on its face. The Royals informed clubs they were willing to listen to offers from anyone on any player, but reportedly would need to be "blown away" to trade their Cy Young winner. As time went on and the rumor mill kept rolling, it seemed like there might be more to it than that. There were reports from several different places that Zack was demanding certain terms, certain locations he wanted to go and that he would not play in Kansas City anymore (a possible threat to skip spring training floated to the surface after the deal went through). I was skeptical personally because there were never any quotes directly from Zack saying any of that. Evidently my skepticism was unfounded.

Before the season ended, Zack was quoted as saying, "There's no reason for me to get real excited about [the prospects] because the chance of more than one of them making a major impact by the time my contract is up is pretty slim." Zack had two years left on his deal, which led me to believe this quote from Zack near the end of the season didn't carry any real significance. The Royals had two years to prove to him that The Process was worth it, and four opportunities to trade him along the way if they were overwhelmed by an offer (this off-season, trade deadline, next off-season, next trade deadline). As it turned out, the Royals took the first opportunity, though I can't blame them for it. It's doubtful if there was really even a choice. After the deal went through, the rumors of Zack demanding the trade were basically confirmed and had he not been traded, the saga appeared primed to turn ugly.

Outside of the rumored threats not to attend spring training, there were questions as to whether Zack would maintain his razor-sharp focus (and thus his high value) on a team not in contention, or more specfically, when he wasn't playing for anything--in a division race or a Cy Young award.

"The main reason I wanted to get out, I mean, preferred to get out of Kansas City is I wanted to be on a team that was trying to win this year...Just really wanted to be in a place where they were playing to win games right away." (Quotes from here) Zack's competitive streak is well known but so is his aloofness. In 2010, Zack appeared disinterested at times and his numbers reflect it. His numbers in 2009 even reflect a similar idea. I don't want it to seem like I'm questioning his heart, though. The season is a grind and I think Zack rises when he sees a real challenge.

Through May 26th 2009 (The Royals in contention, off to the infamous 18-11 start): Greinke carried a .84 ERA with 81 Ks and only 12 BBs in 75 innings. An ERA under 1 run per game, through 10 games. A K/BB ratio of 6.75. 4 complete games. Name your statistic, Zack was historic. It simply can't be overstated. Arguably the best start to a season in the history of whatever (thank you, anonymous Royals official). After Zack's start on the 26th, the Royals hit 23-23 and didn't reach .500 for the rest of the season.

From May 31st (his next start) to August 8th: an ERA of 3.84 with no complete games. Obviously still nothing to slouch at, but a significant outlier from the beginning and end of the season.

August 14th to end of season (as the Cy Young race is heating up): an ERA of 1.54 and his final complete game.

Zack's 2010 obviously was nothing like his 2009 (and everyone knew that was unrepeatable). On top of that, the Royals were never in contention from the start. For the majority of the season, his ERA hovered in the high 3s. However, his ERA hit 5.07 over his last 13 starts from July 26th til season's end, and he had 68 Ks with 29 BBs over those 87 innings. His K rate for the season dropped to 7.4 K/9 for the first time since pre-2007. Any advanced statistics aside (and his Fielder Independent Pitching, FIP, a defense-independent statistic, suggests his ERA was a bit unlucky for the season), it looked as if Zack's focus may have waned as the doldrums of another losing season with no hope from the start headed to a close.

I can see why the Royals may have wanted to deal him sooner rather than later, all these things considered. Now, with Greinke and DeJesus traded in the same off-season, the two most recognizable faces of the franchise are gone. Probably the majority of Royals fans chose one of them as their favorite player, with the exception of some Billy Butler fans and a Soria fan or two. A decent portion of the fan-base is justifiably disappointed that those two are gone. However, dealing Dave made the most sense for Mission 2012/2013 as explained in the last post. And unfortunately, Zack clearly didn't want to be apart of what was going on in Kansas City anymore, and I can't be mad at the team for that. In any case, that basically leaves Billy as the de facto Face of the Franchise.

Billy's words: "You don't want somebody to be somewhere they don't want to. That being said, Zack made it public that he didn't want to be here anymore. As the Kansas City Royals, you don't want that around. It's not good for your team." Billy in another interview said that he's "not trying to be" the face of the franchise, but it's obvious to him and everyone else that he's got to lead now. "I’m prepared to do whatever is best for this organization moving forward. (I want) to make every person in the clubhouse better, as a player, as a person, whatever it takes. If I could be half of what Mike Sweeney was, I’ll be happy with it. I’m just striving to be ... that type of guy for this organization." His words say it all well enough.

And soon enough, the young guys will arrive and they are generally reputed as quality people (see: Mike Moustakas, math homework). They'll fill the void.

Now that we've spent 1000 words on why it was okay to deal Zack, let's move on to the return. Obviously we can't know for sure what other teams offered, but we have some ideas about a few (Washington probably offered a package including Jordan Zimmerman, Michael Burgess, and a couple of others). The overall reaction to the trade is that it wasn't bad, but underwhelming. However, when compared to other trades of pitching aces, it appears to have been a fairly favorable return. Rany Jazayerli does a very extensive comparison of such trades here. I'll stick to analyzing the prospects.

1. Alcides Escobar- Escobar is the biggest name of the four prospects, having been as high as the #12 prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2010 season according to Baseball America. His debut performance in the majors was fairly unimpressive: .235/.288/.326 in 145 games. However, he was only 23 at the time and his BABIP* suggests he was significantly unlucky. Escobar's actual BABIP last year was .264, but his xBABIP was .311, a difference of nearly 50 points! His numbers thus probably should've been closer to .260/.305/.340. Still not that great, but for a 23 year old SS in his first extensive experience in the majors, its perfectly acceptable. When compared to Betancourt (and that is another huge plus of the deal--Milwaukee had to take him with Greinke), they are at worst a wash offensively. Betancourt showed surprising power last year, slugging .405 with 16 HRs and 29 doubles. But his OBP was a miserable .288, also known as the same as 23 year old Escobar but with the extra padding of .24 points of batting average. On top of that, Betancourt is without question the slowest shortstop in baseball, while Escobar hit 10 triples last year and is a talented base-stealer: in the minors, he stole 176 bases over 5 years (just over 29 per year). But Escobar wasn't targeted for his offensive value anyway. Escobar with a little improvement (and his upside is definitely still there) would be a clearly better offensive player than Betancourt especially given his unfortunate luck last year.

*BABIP stands for "Batting Average on Balls in Play." It measures how often a ball put in play (home runs aren't counted) falls for a hit. BABIP is often used to see if a player's batting average is sustainable, if he's been lucky or unlucky at the plate. Obviously this number will vary depending on the player (though average BABIP is assumed to be around .300), based on speed, ground ball/fly ball ratio, line drive %, the player's home park, and many other factors. Given these different factors, xBABIP is what a player's BABIP should be, his expected BABIP. If a player's xBABIP is much higher than their actual BABIP, the player was unlucky and could normally be expected to hit better. If the xBABIP is much lower than their actual BABIP, the player was lucky and shouldn't be expected to hit quite as well in the future.

Escobar has been widely regarded as a defensive savant at shortstop, and in his rookie year his UZR* was 3.8 which is about 4 runs saved above average. That's not eye-popping, but it is fairly above average and it's generally accepted that it takes about three years worth of defensive statistics to be accurate anyway. Royals fans will notice a huge difference immediately from Betancourt's average of -12.5 (!) over the last three years. That's 16 extra runs saved per year and honestly that's probably on the conservative side given Escobar's reputation. The rule of thumb is generally that 10 runs equals 1 win for reasons I'll readily admit I haven't looked into, but that means on the conservative side Escobar will add almost 2 wins to the Royals over Betancourt on defense alone.

*UZR is Ultimate Zone Rating. It's one of the more advanced defensive metrics and the one I will be using because I don't have access to Dewan's Plus/Minus system. UZR is a counting stat and adds or subtracts based on runs saved or cost compared to a 'league average' player at that position. Runs saved based on range, arm, and double plays (mostly for infielders, naturally) are calculated and then added together.

Put the most simple way I can, Alcides Escobar at 23 years old is already the best shortstop the Royals have had since I was born.

2. Lorenzo Cain- Of the four pieces the Royals got in return, Cain is the most exciting to me. In 43 games last year (3 too many games for him to qualify as a rookie this year), Cain hit .306/.348/.415. His BABIP suggests some luck, but he'll probably walk more than his measly 5.7% walk rate (league average is 8.7%) as well. Cain's main asset is his speed- he and Escobar were the pieces that Moore wanted specifically. Moore asked for up the middle help on defense and he absolutely got it. Cain's UZR over that time was 2.0 and extrapolated over 150 games would be 7.6. Again, the sample size is miniscule, but most of that UZR is based on his range which by all accounts is otherworldly. His instincts are also reportedly very good. He stole 7 bases over the time frame and was only caught stealing once. When let loose, he and Escobar could be downright frightening for other teams on the basepaths. Cain will turn 25 at the beginning of the season this year, which is a little older than I wish he was, but obviously there is still time for growth. Cain looks very promising from every angle and I'm excited to get to watch him. My only worry is what I expressed in the last post-- that Yost will start Melky Cabrera over him.

3. Jeremy Jeffress- Jeffress is a very different beast than the first two prospects. Jeffress is a 23 year old relief pitcher who has had control problems and I don't mean on the field (but he's had that too). Jeffress was and may still be, way into marijuana. He was suspended in the minors for violating the drug policy, and was one strike (the policy is three strikes total) away from being completely banned from the game (he did serve a 100 game suspension). Jeffress has presumably quit using it, though the drug isn't tested for or banned in the majors for some seemingly inconsistent and strange reason. He also had control problems on the field, however, posting a walk rate of 5.5 BB/9 over his entire time in the minors. This is not atypical among fireballers, and Jeffress has hit as high as 102 mph on the gun. He has a power curve to go with his fastball that complements it well. Evidently future HOFer Trevor Hoffman took Jeffress under his wing some last year though and may have helped him get things figured out in his life and with his walk rate. In the majors it was still 5.4, but that was in a very sample size of 10 innings. In the minors last year, it dropped to 3.3 per 9 innings, and he averaged 12 K/9. He's obviously a back of the bullpen candidate and will either start in AAA or take his place as the 7th or 8th inning guy this year (probably 7th given Tim Collins's ridiculous 13.3 K/9 over his entire career in the minors). If Jeffress really does have things figured out, he could be a very valuable bullpen piece and if he doesn't, it hardly makes or breaks anything. The kid has potential to be really good though. Hopefully he gets a chance to talk to newly hired minor league coach Willie Aikens, a former Royal who struggled with drugs throughout a career that was ultimately derailed by them. Aikens has since turned his life around and gives all the credit to God, becoming a Christian during his time in prison. A good summary of the story by Sam Mellinger can be found here. I have no doubt he could help Jeffress in all sorts of ways.

4. Jake Odorizzi- Odorizzi is the youngest (20) of the four prospects and the least known quantity of the bunch. However, he was the linchpin to the deal that the Royals needed in order to accept the offer from Milwaukee and to complete the decimation of the Brewers farm system, now the worst in the majors. Just from looking at the numbers you can see Odorizzi has stupendous control (135 Ks and 40 BBs in 120.2 IP in A ball last year) and the scouts confirm it. He has atleast two plus pitches (though I've heard three) in his fastball which can hit the mid-90s, his slider, and curveball, though his change up needs work. Baseball Prospectus believes he has the stuff to be a fringe #2 starter in the bigs if all works out. He was the top pitching prospect for the Brewers and falls in at about the 5th or 6th best pitching prospect for the Royals and barely in the top 10 overall, which is incredible given that, in the words of Baseball Prospectus, "he'd be an easy top-three selection in most organizations." But Royals fans are used to the borderline absurdity of the talent in the farm system by now. The second best isn't close. Odorizzi's progress will deserve being watched, and if all goes well we'll probably see him at the K around 2013.

Overall I'd say the deal worked out pretty well. We lost an ace, but gained two valuable every day starters with plus defense and plenty of potential, a strong back of the bullpen candidate, and a young pitcher with good control and a high ceiling. Better value would be hard to find. Zack was and still is my favorite pitcher (bar none), and he'll definitely benefit from going to the inferior league. I'm sure he's excited to play for a team with a good offense and potential to compete and especially to get to hit. Unfortunately for him, he'll still have Betancourt at shortstop.

Coming Up

I had previously assumed the Royals were done making moves before spring training, but Dayton Moore has a habit of making fools out of us all... well, he has his habits, anyway. The Royals signed Pedro Feliz to a minor league deal worth $800k. Not exactly exciting but its okay. Just a depth move. But we'll get to that, Meche's retirement, the Francis and Chen signings, the Butler extension, and maybe a little talk about the Baseball America rankings next time.