A Tablespoon of Predictions and a Pinch of Hope

Well, today is Opening Day and the Royals are already under way. The Royals are carrying 5 rookies on their roster--four in the bullpen (Crow, Adcock, Collins, and Jeffress), and one as a reserve OF (Dyson). This is the appetizer to the main course of The Process we should see next year. We just need to get through this season however we can. But that's not what this post is about.

Ever since spring training began, everyone has been asking me, "Adam, what are your predictions for this MLB season?" People on the street approach me and demand to know who the AL MVP is going to be. My professors stop class and refuse to continue until I tell them who will be in the World Series. And to be honest, I just couldn't deny the people anymore.

So without further adeu, here are my "predictions" for the 2011 season.*

*I am very aware that these numbers might not equate to 2430 wins and 2430 losses, the requisite number of Ws and Ls for a major league season.

 American League

AL East
Boston Red Sox 95-67
New York Yankees 88-74
Tampa Bay Rays 84-80
Toronto Blue Jays 81-83
Baltimore Orioles 72-90

Everyone is on this bandwagon this year. Crawford will probably do better at that hitter's park in Fenway, Yankees and Rays not looking quite as good this year. Yankees got no back of the rotation and Rays slowly becoming shells of their 2008 glory.

AL Central
Kansas City Royals 160-2
Detroit Tigers 90-72
Minnesota Twins 85-77
White Sox 84-78
Cleveland Indians 5-157

I know, Royals record seems unrealistic right? But I figure the umpires will probably manage to screw them out of at least one game in such a long season. The Indians are terrible. Not a lot else to say about that.

AL West
Texas Rangers 89-63
Oakland Athletics 88-64
Los Angeles Angels 79-83
Seattle Mariners 32-130

Those Athletics sure can pitch, but the Rangers can pitch just enough for their hitting to overcome. The Mariners win every game Felix Hernandez starts this year, but this time he loses the Cy Young.

National League

NL East
Philadelphia Phillies 130-32
Atlanta Braves 83-81
Florida Marlins 72-90
Washington Nationals 66-96
New York Mets 0-88

Phillies win every game Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels start- duh, best pitching staff ever! New York Mets get contracted at the All-Star Break.

NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers 87-75
Cincinnati Reds 86-76
St. Louis Cardinals 81-83
Chicago Cubs 74-88
Pittsburgh Pirates 70-92
Houston Astros 62-100

Brewers are a trendy pick, and I happen to agree. When Greinke and Marcum are ready, they will have a dominant rotation to go with that powerful offense, Yuniesky Betancourt notwithstanding. Cardinals loss of Wainwright is too much to overcome.

NL West
San Francisco Giants 91-71
Colorado Rockies 85-77
Los Angeles Dodgers 82-82
San Diego Padres 77-85
Arizona Diamondbacks 65-97

Giants pitching nearly matches the Phillies, poor Rockies miss out on playoffs.

World Series
Royals over Phillies in 4.

Awards
AL ROY- Mike Moustakas
NL ROY- Who Cares

AL MVP- Carl Crawford who becomes slowly more and more overrated as the season progresses
NL MVP- Albert Pujols, but Buster Posey finishes in 2nd

AL Cy Young- Gio Gonzalez comes out of nowhere
NL Cy Young- Tommy Hunter...erm, Tommy Hanson (aren't they the same person?) wins after the 4 Phillies and 3 Brewers steal too many votes from each other

...If you've made it this far, you might be thinking, "Adam, your predictions are totally unrealistic and not even that funny." If that's you... Sorry.

What do you think? Are your predictions in line with mine?

Spring Cleaning

For any still struggling with the Mizzou loss in the Big 12 tournament: this should cheer you up.

See? All better.

Now on to business.

Spring Training is about halfway over and the Royals have already played quite a few games against other teams. Now, these games obviously don't mean anything, but still, the Royals are 9-4 and second in the Cactus League behind World Series Champion San Francisco! They have the greatest run differential as well at +32, and while that may not mean much... there are SOME things we're learning from Spring Training.

The players by all accounts are enjoying their time under Yost much more than under Hillman (through some decoding of typical interview talk), and it has been emphasized a few times that Yost keeps things much more on schedule than Hillman ever did. A lot of the respect for Yost that was absent for Hillman is probably because Hillman never played in the bigs, while Yost caught for a little while, so he knows what it's like to be a player. The issues with Hillman as the skipper are well-documented though, and don't need to be rehashed here. It also can't hurt that Yost has turned an organization like this around before, and Milwaukee is still reaping the benefits of that.*

*Yost's firing in Milwaukee had to be one of the most bizarre in baseball history. His team was in a slump and had lost 11 of 14, but the season was 12 games from over and they were STILL TIED for the division lead at 83-67. He had developed all the players there and most of the seemed disappointed when he was let go. The weirdest thing about it:

"[Yost] didn't have all the answers for what is going on the last two weeks and I'm not sure I have all the answers," general manager Doug Melvin said during a news conference at a hotel in Chicago. "I'm not sure this is the right one, either." Their GM WASN'T SURE firing him was the right move, but they fired him anyway! He thought that might turn them around, though the season wasn't even over. He sacrificed the long term future for wild card finish that odds are they would've attained with Yost as well. Even if they hadn't...the man who turned your organization from a laughing stock into a playoff contender, fired for a two week stretch? Short sighted at best, but good for the Royals. The man develops players.

Whatever the case, Yost is teaching the players a thing or two. Specifically about base-running. That sounds like a small thing to be stressing, but when your team is 29th out of 30 teams in it and 14.2 runs BELOW AVERAGE, it IS significant (and that's just Baseball Prospectus numbers, Bill James has it at 78 bases below average, or almost 20 runs). The number 1 team, the Rockies, were 16.5 runs above average, a difference of 3 wins (just over 30 runs) between the two. And that's just how well they steal, go 1st to 3rd on a hit, 2nd to home on a single, etc. Things that you hardly even notice. 3 wins.

Without quantifying it, just following the Royals every game on their gamecast at the Royals website, I've been pleasantly surprised how many times I've seen players go 2nd to home on singles to shallow center. and in the most noticeable and quantifiable base-running statistic, steals, the Royals lead the league. They have 27 SBs through 14 games, and have been caught stealing 6 times, for an 82% success rate (70%-75% success rate is generally believed to be required to have a positive value for the club). Simple math says that's nearly 2 steals a game and more than 2 attempts per game which dictates a very aggressive philosophy which I personally have felt would help the Royals in recent years. The Royals were 2nd in baseball in batting average last year at .274 but 20th in runs scored. Aggressive base-running is a good way to help fix that. Even Billy Butler has stolen a base this ST, for some perspective on how serious they are about this. They're sending guys.

Naturally this might be a little inflated, pitchers are working on their mechanics and catchers are still getting into the swing of things, probably less worried about throwing guys out* than they would be in a regular season game. But some of it is certainly real. The Royals are evidently placing such an emphasis on it that they've moved it to the first thing done after stretches rather than the last thing done at the end of the day, at the behest of first base coach Doug Sisson. The emphasis is obviously there. The Royals are going to be aggressive, and with Aviles in top form, Getz for as long as he holds the job at second, Escobar a natural base stealer, Cain likewise if Melky doesn't block him forever... they have the team for it. And of course, the day I start writing this post, the KC Star goes out of its way to talk about the emphasis on base-running that I wanted to.

*Though Salvador Perez has been getting rave reviews for his defense at catcher... and in games he's throwing out everybody, reportedly "by a wide margin," and that's including speedsters like Will Venable. He throws like Andy Roddick hits.

There hasn't been a lot of talk about working on plate discipline other than as it pertains to Franceour, really... but the Royals are currently 2nd in baseball in OBP for spring training (at .371). At this point, it's probably just a matter of the Royals facing wild pitchers so far. Wouldn't it be nice if this were a sign of something real, though?

Given that it's Spring Training and only halfway through that, it's tough to say too much about individual players. However, it's clear right now that:

Mike Aviles should never be doubted. He's stealing bases (he has 4 in 10 games), hitting for extra bases, and hitting for average. At first the idea of him batting lead-off this year seemed kind of silly, but he sure can hit, and maybe he's faster than any of us thought.

Kila Ka'aihue, as we all already know, hits for power. He has 3 HRs so far. Now that he finally is getting his opportunity, the AL Central had better prepare...

Hosmer and Moustakas are both looking close to major league ready, in Hosmer's case quite a bit early. Both are hitting very well in their limited opportunities.

Everett Teaford, who came out of relative obscurity last year at age 26 in AA to produce and look like a real prospect, hasn't lived up to it so far in Spring Training. He's gotten lit up in the majority of his appearances so far this spring. Prospects bust all the time, but despite Teaford's struggles he's certainly not finished.

Lance Zawadzki, a 25 year old utility infielder, is hitting like crazy, trying to force his way onto the roster. He has no history of ever hitting before though, so the Royals shouldn't take too much stock in it.

Jesse Chavez and Luis Mendoza are doing terrifying impressions of real pitchers, enough that they are still definitely in contention for bullpen spots. These two are not useful pieces, but they are masquerading as them right now. It's all a trick!

Position Player Projections

As promised, here are my odds each position player makes the Opening Day Roster out of Spring Training:

Catchers-

Cody Clark- 28, in AAA and nothing else of note to say. You gotta have a catcher on every team. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Ryan Eigsti- Slow progression through the minors suggests he is the next Cody Clark. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Jason Kendall- See Mendoza, Luis. Injury should keep him out til May. Odds of Making Roster: 2%

Lucas May- Supposedly has decent power but defense is also a question mark. Should back up Pena to start the season. Odds of Making Roster: 75%

Salvador Perez- The catcher of the future. The kid can play great defense and started to hit last year. Great article on him by Bob Dutton of the KC Star here. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Brayan Pena- The starter to begin the year, certainly earned this chance. Can hit a little, and he's the happiest man I've ever seen on a baseball field. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Manny Pina- The dark horse for the catching competition, he plays excellent defense but can't hit at all. Odds of Making Roster: 25%

Infielders-

Joaquin Arias- A utility guy, doesn't bring a lot to the table. His primary asset is filling a spot in the minors. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Mike Aviles- Struggled defensively at 2B last year, the odds on favorite to start at 3B til Moustakas is ready. Talented hitter, when Mouse is ready should be utility INF or 2B. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Wilson Betemit- Aviles competition to start at 3B, will be utility man if Aviles moves to 2B when Moustakas arrives. Should be dealt at the deadline. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Jeff Bianchi- Often forgotten because Tommy John surgery kept him out last year, Bianchi hit well in 2009 at SS in AA. Could compete for utility spot but unlikely. Odds of Making Roster: 10%

Billy Butler- The Face of the Franchise, we'd all like to see Billy's power numbers go up, but his approach at the plate will stay the same. HRs should go up anyway. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Alcides Escobar- The main 'get' of the Greinke deal, will be a very interesting player to watch. Brings a huge defensive upgrade at SS. Need his bat to develop this year. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Irving Falu- Falu will turn 28 this year. Just too old. Good organizational depth, has played every outfield spot and all but 1B (and C) on the infield in his career. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Pedro Feliz- Insurance in case of injury to Aviles or Betemit before Moustakas is ready. Could mentor Mouse on defense in ST, known for his glove throughout his career. Odds of Making Roster: 10%

Chris Getz- Has to prove he can hit a lick this year, kid is fast and can play good defense. Will start at 2B with chance to prove himself or lose the job. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Johnny Giavotella- Hit well in the minors, but defense is suspect. Royals have him working with Glenn Hubbard, a defensive whiz with a rep. of fixing suspect defenders. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Eric Hosmer- Just here for the experience this time, will start in AAA or arrive there quickly. Could be a September call up or else will be ready next year. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Kila Ka'aihue- Will split time with Billy at 1B/DH, and he will mash this year. May be a candidate for trade when Hosmer is ready unless Hosmer moves to the OF. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Mike Moustakas- With a great spring, could force his way onto the roster, but more likely will show up mid-to-late June. He signifies the real beginning of Mission 2013. Odds of Making Roster: 15%

Clint Robinson- Won the AAA Triple Crown last year, is a little old at 26 for a AAA player. Could be interesting if Billy or Kila got hurt. Let's hope not. Odds of Making Roster: 1%

Lance Zawadzki- See: Arias, Joaquin. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Outfielders-


Gregor Blanco- Despite playing well for the Royals in center last year, Blanco is only maybe competing for 4th OF. Cabrera in CF and if he falters, the job is Cain's. Odds of Making Roster: 25%

Melky Cabrera- Seems poised to "win" the job for CF due to a stupid promise, but Royals shouldn't hesitate to replace him with Cain if he doesn't excel. Odds of Making Roster: 90%

Lorenzo Cain- Sadly odds are slim he will start the season in CF. Probably will play a little in AAA first, maybe will arrive with Moustakas? Odds of Making Roster: 10%

Brett Carroll- Depth signing probably. Hopefully. The longest, longest odds for 4th OF. Odds of Making Roster: 5%

Jarrod Dyson- 4th OF? He can't hit. And he's old for a prospect. But very fast and plays good D, and Royals brass loves him. Odds of Making Roster: 20%

Jeff Francoeur- The starting RF, would be nice to see him rebound some. Will provide alright defense and important veteran leadership. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Alex Gordon- Make or break year for Alex Gordon. Been working with Kevin Seitzer all off-season, great work ethic. Would be nice to see the batting average go up some. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

David Lough- Competing for the 4th OF spot with all the others. He's had the opportunity for that for a few years now, would be nice if he finally got it. DeJesus-Lite. Odds of Making Roster: 25%

Mitch Maier- The complement to Gregor Blanco. Both hit for okay average and get on base, Blanco is fast and Maier hits with a little more power. Odds of Making Roster: 25%

Derrick Robinson- The organization never seems to want to give him a chance. Like Dyson except younger and a better base-stealer and a hitter last year. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Well that was a lot longer than I thought it would be! 65 players is quite a few, I suppose. We may do a short post in the future on the projected line-up, rotation, and bullpen, and what those will look like after the trade deadline. The latter will be more exciting. For now, let's enjoy Spring Training!

Update: Here's a cool video from Joel Goldberg from Surprise where he talks with a lot of the prospects briefly. It's nice to be able to put some faces with the names. Definitely worth checking out.

Pitching Projections

Spring Training has started, the weather in Missouri is in the 70s, and all is right with the world. Position players have all arrived at the complex in Surprise, Arizona today and the first full work-out is tomorrow. Obviously a lot of things will change as Spring Training (capitalized from sheer excitement) goes on, but coming out of the off-season, here are the odds each player makes the Opening Day roster as well as a sentence or two summing up them and/or their chances as I see them. Odds are, of course, barring unforeseen injury. Players listed in alphabetical order.

Pitchers-

Nathan Adcock- Adcock was acquired in the Rule 5 Draft from the Pirates. Only reached A+ ball. Has to stay on the 25 man roster the whole year for the Royals to keep him. Odds of Making Roster: 20%

Noel Arguelles- Arguelles had to have shoulder surgery last year and has yet to pitch at any level for the Royals. On restricted throwing program now, should start in A ball. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Henry Barrera- Righty bullpen arm, already 25 and only in AA ball. Good strikeout numbers, could be first up if a regular bullpen arm is injured. Odds of Making Roster: 10%

Jesse Chavez- Terrible. Just terrible. The mythical AAAA player. Unfortunately the Royals seemed to like him last year. I don't get it. Odds of Making Roster: 50%

Bruce Chen- Probably the #3 starter in the rotation, as sad as that may be. Great clubhouse guy though, very friendly and pretty funny. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Louis Coleman- A righty with great control to go along with a 10 K/9, would be very surprising if he didn't earn a spot as a late inning reliever. Odds of Making Roster: 90%

Tim Collins- Stolen from Atlanta in a trade last year. A unique player, a 5'7" lefty with a career 13.3 K/9 in the minors and is only 20. Almost certainly will work the 7th/8th. Odds of Making Roster: 95%

Aaron Crow- Long shot at long relief duty, struggled too much last year, the necessary demotion from AA is a cause for concern. Odds of Making Roster: 20%

Kyle Davies- The #4 or #5 for the rotation has never really stabilized in the majors. This will be his last shot to prove anything for the Royals. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Danny Duffy- The first of the promising lefty starters. Could start in the bullpen and eventually slide into the back of the rotation. Odds of Making Roster: 40%

Christopher Dwyer- The second of the lefty starters, Dwyer's control needs work and will almost certainly return to AA to start the year. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Jeff Francis- The #2 starter and #1if Hochevar shows none of his potential and all his disappointment. Will be traded at the deadline if he pitches even okay. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Blaine Hardy- Coleman's lefty late-inning parter in the minors will get a long look as well. He's ready. Odds of Making Roster: 90%

Gaby Hernandez- A minor league spot-filler. May never see the majors. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Luke Hochevar- The #1 starter that has shown flashes of great potential yet majorly disappointed. Will have every chance to prove himself last year. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Greg Holland- Technically the first Dayton Moore draft pick to reach the majors last year, struggles with control and doesn't do anything too special. Odds of Making Roster: 40%

Jeremy Jeffress- Righty that can dial it up past 100 mph, but has had control issues. If he's got those figured out, he could be a very good 8th inning guy. May start in AAA. Odds of Making Roster: 75%

Patrick Keating- a righty with a K rate to match Collins, his walk rate is just average but more than acceptable. Hasn't gone past AA yet but could force Yost's hand. Odds of Making Roster: 40%

John Lamb- Moved up three levels last year but struggled at the end in AA. Will certainly be better this year. Next year will be his time in the rotation. This one could be special. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Vin Mazzaro- The #4 starter in the rotation this year, if he gets any of his sink back he can be valuable. Still only 24. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Luis Mendoza- Please, please, please no. For the love of all things holy, PLEASE NO!! Odds of Making Roster: 1%

Zack Miner- Miner is a decent righty veteran that could be a spot starter and will start in the 'pen or minors when he's healthy. Will probably start the season on the DL. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Mike Montgomery- Word around baseball is he projects as about a #2 starter, which to me says fringe #1. Yost seems to want him to spend some time in AAA. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Sean O'Sullivan- His main asset is his youth. Will probably be the loser in the rotation competition and doesn't have a spot in the bullpen. If he could ever strike anyone out... Odds of Making Roster: 20%

Kevin Pucetas- Pucetas was good in the lower levels but the Giants rushed him, skipping AA. His primary value is in not being Jose Guillen. Odds of Making Roster: 5%

Steven Shell- Could be a surprise, but likely won't quite fit onto the roster. Will sit and wait in AAA in case of injury. Odds of Making Roster: 20%

Brandon Sisk- Another lefty bullpen guy, 24 years old and big on the strikeouts. A year behind Hardy, not quite there yet. Just in spring training to get a taste. Odds of Making Roster: 5%

Will Smith- Don't you wish he were that one? Young and despite reaching AAA with the Angels, will start in the low minors with the Royals. Here for the experience, like Sisk. Odds of Making Roster: 0%

Joakim Soria- The Royals' most valuable player except for Billy Butler and at an absurdly cheap price. Smartest or luckiest move the Royals have made in years, getting him. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Everett Teaford- Long shot for the rotation, will sneak in the back of it later in the year. Good odds of making the bullpen if not the rotation. Odds of Making Roster: 75%

Robinson Tejeda- A sure thing if healthy. Control finally showed up last year and he was exciting to watch. Looking forward to it again. Odds of Making Roster: 100%

Kanekoa Texeira- A decent warm body in the bullpen last year, not enough to make what will probably be the team's biggest strength this year. Odds of Making Roster: 10%

Blake Wood- Has a fastball that touches the high 90s, but low strikeout numbers. Needs more of those and fewer walks to be any good. Stiff competition. Odds of Making Roster: 50%

That's all the pitchers and just over half the invitees to Spring Training. We'll bring the rest of the projections in a couple of days.

Zornography

Before we resume regularly scheduled Spring Training coverage, we have some Kansas City Chiefs off-season news! With Mike Solari, I mean, Bill Muir as the new offensive co-ordinator, the Chiefs had yet to get someone to "fix the quarterback," which had been the theme of the offense since the end of the 2009 season. Charlie Weis managed to do make some progress at it last year (as far as we know). Despite fading at the end, we are all witnesses to tremendous improvement in Cassel's decision-making last year.* But the job was/is far from finished. Muir had been the Chiefs' offensive line coach for the last 2 years, and previously was an offensive coordinator that did not call plays at Tampa Bay (he mostly worked with the O-line there) and a defensive coordinator (not often these days you see a coach work on both sides of the ball) for the Colts way back in 1989-1990. He will turn 69 during the 2011-2012 season (pessimists read: 2011-2012 lockout). The man is ancient.

*Much better 'Decision' making than the man in the picture.

His age + offensive line coach = Run philosophy.

Chiefs fans had plenty of reason to worry. The Chiefs missed on Mike McCoy and Greg Olson and had to settle on Muir. Clearly this meant Haley was calling the plays, which did not go so well in 2009 (though with two seasons under his belt, could go better in 2011), and either:

1) Haley would have to tutor Cassel himself on top of play-calling and normal head-coaching duties
or
2) Leave it to inexperienced though promising assistant Nick Sirianni and Bill Muir, who, despite his run philosophy I would still rather have than the other old man, the Curmudgeon and Herm Disciple himself, Dick Curl.

So on Tuesday, the Chiefs hired Jim Zorn* to be their QB coach. Zorn served as Baltimore's QB coach in 2010-2011 and was fired after their loss in the playoffs to the Steelers when Flacco threw for only 125 yards. Flacco threw for a career high in yards (3,622), TDs (25), and a career low in INTs (10) in the regular season though, and it looks like Zorn was served up as the sacrificial lamb to save Cam Cameron's job (whose offense, with the exception of Flacco, could be best described as "underwhelming." Ray Rice regressed and the WRs were miserable).

*Just look at that form!

Zorn also served a miserable time as head coach of the Redskins that he obviously wasn't ready for (he was taken from Seattle to be offensive coordinator, which he had never done before, and then promoted to head coach in the same off-season) and he caught a lot of [deserved] flak for it. But before all that, Zorn was the one in Seattle who turned Matt Hasselbeck into an effective quarterback, breaking several all-time Seahawks records that he set when he was the quarterback there.

Zorn was obviously promoted to his level of incompetence in Washington, but "fixing" quarterbacks is his expertise. If anyone can fix Cassel, it's him.

Less is Moore (The Offseason in Review!) Part 3

Football season is over, a sad time for us all. We are left with just basketball for a few days... but it's only a few days! Royals pitchers and catchers report this coming Monday and position players report on the 18th. Obviously the 40-man roster will be there, but the Royals have invited 25 (!) minor leaguers not yet on the roster to camp to get a look as well. It will be the first time most of them have been there and some of them will be on the big league club when it's over. It's going to matter and it's going to be exciting. I will give the odds of each player breaking camp with the big league club in the next post. Unfortunately more and more people seem to think Lorenzo Cain will be starting in AAA barring a very strong spring. We'll see. But today, we're finishing up our discussion of the off-season! So let's get right down to it.

Jeff Francis signs- The Francis signing was by all accounts a steal. I haven't heard a single bad word about it. Jeff Francis, a 30 year old lefty, has spent his entire career thus far with the Rockies but in 2008 he tore the labrum in his shoulder. He came back last year and despite his ERA climbing to 5.00, he appears to have been fully healed and ready to return. One would think that his ERA suffered some perhaps from pitching at Coors, but his ERA was actually slightly lower at home (4.86) than on the road (5.15)--a strange trend that has been a pattern his whole career. His ERA has looked a little high over the years, and he is going to the superior league which won't be healthy for it. But the Royals' defense, one of the worst in baseball last year*, was only a few percentage points (.004) below Colorado's and stands to improve significantly this year with Escobar at short, probably Kila at first, and [hopefully] Cain in center.

*The full list of defensive rankings can be found at Baseball Prospectus, here. The statistic, Defensive Efficiency, is relatively simple and basically equates to (1-BABIP allowed).

The best thing about the deal is probably the price: 1 year, $2 million guaranteed with $2 million in incentives for a lefty who was the Rockies number 1 starter the year they went to the World Series. He probably could've made more money elsewhere, but word is Francis wanted to work with McClure who was a coach in the Rockies minor league system when he was coming up, and knew he needed to re-establish himself in the league and was basically guaranteed to start in Kansas City.

Along with his high ERA last year, his K/9 rate was only 5.8 which isn't great, but the good news is his ground ball rate was up to 47% (a fairly high GB rate) from about 44% previously in his career. On top of that, his Left On Base % (Strand Rate, or LOB%) was very low at 64.5% last year. The average pitcher will probably have an LOB% around 70%-72% and its generally accepted as a number, like BABIP that represents luck to a degree, though, for instance, guys with lots of Ks will be able to strand runners more easily, giving them a naturally higher LOB%. Francis's LOB% has hovered around 70% for his career, so it's likely luck played a bit of a factor. On top of that, his control appeared better than ever, walking just 2 batters per 9 innings, which is very good. For a comparison, that's the exact same walk rate as Zack in his Cy Young season.

If I haven't thrown enough numbers at you yet... last year, Francis's xFIP (which as you will recall, is basically what a player's ERA should be, taking fielding out of the equation) was 3.94, the lowest of his career.

And he was just getting back into the swing of things after a long hiatus last year. Odds are he will be better this year. The Royals only have him on a one year deal, but Dayton Moore rang up a W here and can probably flip him to a contender at the deadline for a talented prospect. The consensus seems to be that Luke Hochevar will be given every opportunity to be the number 1 starter, but if Hoch sucks it up at spring training, the job will fall to Francis. Even for one year, he brings some excitement. The guy can pitch and we got him cheap.

Bruce Chen signs- The sentimental favorite. Many Royals fans are now familiar with the chant popularized by Will Ferrell, "C'MON CHEN!" Elegant in its simplicity, that phrase and Chen's own likability and sense of humor have made him a clubhouse and fan favorite. Chen is another lefty who also signed a one year deal for $2 million (with $1.5 million in incentives), but that's where his similarities to Francis end. However, he is similar to one of his former teammates in another way...

Last year, Bruce Chen and Zack Greinke had the same ERA.

Let me repeat that.

Last year, Bruce Chen and Zack Greinke had the same ERA. (4.17)

But that's also where their similarities end (and it might say more about Greinke last year than Chen). Chen's xFIP last year was 5.01 and he does not exactly have a history of success. He will turn 34 in June this season, so he's no spring chicken either but we can basically count on just below league average innings from him. He has pretty average control (3.5 BB/9), pretty average strikeouts (6.3 K/9 over his last 6 years), and he is a big flyball pitcher (33% ground balls last year). The worry here is that his home run per fly ball rate was significantly lower than his career average, and it's a difficult stat to control. There's a discrepancy on the stat from baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com, but my guess is that fangraphs probably does not includes line drives as fly balls while baseball-reference does. BR makes comparison simpler, so for simplicity's sake, we'll use that. Last year, Chen had a 6.9% HR/FB rate, while the MLB average is 7.9%...and Chen's career average has been 10.7%. Over an entire season, that's a big difference.*

*If you adjust his HR/FB rate to his career average, instead of giving up 17 home runs, he would have given up about 30, and all other things being equal, if each extra home run were solo (unlikely) his ERA would be 5.00 instead of 4.17. Interestingly, only .01 different from his xFIP.

Now maybe Chen figured something out last year. Let's hope. He'll be serviceable as a starter this year and someone had to fill in this year before the prospects are ready. May as well have someone familiar with the organization that provides great clubhouse chemistry too. If we're lucky, his spot in the rotation will be taken by one of the kids before the end of the year (same as Francis and Davies). The biggest plus is the additions of Francis and Chen guarantee the rotation will be dirt cheap and we have no business spending money anywhere but in the draft and in far-off lands this year.

Gil Meche's Unexpected Retirement- Out of nowhere a little bit ago, Gil Meche retired. When the Royals originally signed him to that 5 year, $55 million contract it was widely criticized and mocked by the baseball world. Of course, the Royals had offered one more year than other competitors and basically the same cash per year. It was mostly made fun of because it was the Royals he chose to sign with. Toronto's GM at the time, J.P. Ricciardi (one of the worst GMs in recent memory, to put it mildly) criticized Meche after losing out on the bidding, saying "When a guy talks about coming to our place where he has a chance to win and compete against the Yankees and the Red Sox, and then he goes to a place like Kansas City, that's an eye-opener." He accused Meche of not wanting to compete... like the Blue Jays were going to compete in 2007. There's a reason he couldn't hold the job and now works for the sadly-beyond-comically-dysfunctional Mets.

Now, having followed Gil Meche in his time with the Royals, it was clear to me he was a man of character. And now people are saying that the $12 million he left on the table (not even agreeing to a settlement!) is the most money anyone in baseball has ever walked away from. The proof is in the pudding (for the curious like myself, the origin of the phrase). Gil could've pitched from the bullpen, or he could have gone on the DL and taken the money, no questions asked. The Royals made the deal, and have to live with the consequences. Plenty of players have done exactly that. But Gil felt that he couldn't earn the money, so he wouldn't take it. That's a lot of moral fortitude and indescribable kindness to an organization that most agree ruined his arm. Trey Hillman and Nick Schwartz, the trainer, allowed Meche to finish out a complete game in 2009, throwing 132 pitches in the process, which is not the issue. The issue is that Meche blew up over the next two starts, a combined 13 runs in 8.1 IP.  Then it came out that Meche had something the organization called "dead arm," then they said he was good to go, and the Royals allowed him to make his next start, claiming they would "watch his pitch count." Naturally, it hit 121 in that start--an especially high number if you are trying to make sure a pitcher doesn't injure himself. In his next start, he threw 114 pitches. They punished him by making him go through one more miserable start (8 runs, 6 earned, in 3.2 IP) before he went on the DL for a month and then got crushed again at the end of the season. Some presumably delusional Trey Hillman apologists say that Gil Meche told them he wanted to start; he wanted to keep going. Of course he did. That's what pitchers do. They never want to be taken out. It's the manager and trainer's jobs to say NO when it's dangerous for them.

Gil Meche owed this organization NOTHING. But instead he gave it $12 million, and Moore has indicated he will be using it to help spending in the draft and in international scouting, promising to boost the farm system even more and keep The Process churning, which is the best (only?) way for the Royals to consistently compete. Gil Meche owed the organization nothing. But we owe him a great debt.*

*Too over the top? In any case, he's a great guy and I'll miss him seeing him out there. Joe Posnanski has also written about his effect on Zack Greinke, evidently Zack feels he owes a lot to Gil. The end of his time in Kansas City is sad and I wish it hadn't taken the turn it did. It does leave open a roster spot and a place in the bullpen this year for one of the prospects to slide into, which is nice.

Billy Butler signs a 4 year extension with a club option- This is the most exciting news of the off-season. Billy Butler's desire to stay with the club and be a leader (see quotes from the last post) made manifest in a deal that potentially buys out 2 years of free agency for Billy. The deal pays a total of $30 million (minus the club option--assuming it's taken it's $41.5 million) specifically: $3 million in 2011, $8 million 2012-2014, and a $12.5 million club option* for 2015 or $1 million buyout with $2 million signing bonus. Assuming Billy improves even a little bit on his current level of production through the contract, the $12.5 million club option will be an obvious choice (for example, fangraphs lists Billy's 2010 as worth approximately $13.8 million). If the Royals ever want to trade him before the end of the deal (for instance, if they decide to keep Hosmer and Ka'aihue at 1B/DH)** then they could probably receive a big haul in return for a very talented player on a very club friendly contract.

*For the uneducated, a club option simply gives the organization the choice whether to retain him at a given price for an extra year or not while the player has no say in the decision.

**The scenarios in order of likelihood as I see them are: 
(1) Butler and Hosmer end up staying with Hosmer at 1B and Billy at DH, with Kila traded for something.
(2) Butler is DH, Kila plays 1B and Hosmer moves to the outfield.
(3) Butler is traded, Hosmer plays 1B and Kila is DH.
(4) The Royals sign Albert Pujols (which is not utter nonsense, the payroll allows for it and the hometown factor is there) and craziness ensues. We'll cross that bridge if we come to it. But I really like that I can even bring it up as a realistic option.

Billy is one of the great young hitters in the game. His OPS+ last year was 134, where 100 is a league average player. Butler's OPS over the last two seasons (.855) is matched by just 28 players in baseball, and of those, only Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, and himself are under 25. That's elite company. Players usually peak about 27-28. And he's signed for 4, potentially 5 years. The math looks good.

Point is, he should be a joy to watch for a long time. Granted the K doesn't make homering easy on anyone, but if Butler's power develops he could easily be one of the top players in the game. His walk rate and batting average have steadily increased over the last two years. In 2008, Billy walked 6.9% of the time, in 2009 he walked 8.6% of the time, and in 2010 he walked 10.2% of the time (league average is 8.7%). His batting average has risen from .275 to .301 to .317. He was just 11 hits short of the 200 plateau last year and I fully expect him to reach that at some point in the future.

.317/.388/.469. That is a pretty triple slash. Just for fun...(according to BR) an offense with 9 2010 Editions of Billy Butler and average pitching and defense would win 61.9% of the time. That translates to a record 100-62. Just for fun.

The only real complaint is the double plays, which he led the league in last year with 32... but if he starts hitting with more home run power, his GB rate should drop, and in turn the number of double plays should as well. Of course, there's some debate as to whether this would cost him average or not, but more power is worth a slight dip in average (especially because it makes pitchers more careful not to make a mistake, resulting in higher OBP as well).

It's strange... I feel like I should have more to say. But really, Billy is above average in just about every statistic other than speed, and he's 5 days younger than Lorenzo Cain, one of the prospects we received in the Greinke deal. The contract is a big win for the organization (and reasonable for Billy) but especially big for Dayton Moore, looking savvy with a move, even just a contract extension, on the big league level.

Pedro Feliz signs- This move worried me at first. It was a minor league deal but for $800k and he is old and almost totally without use. His main selling point has always been his defense, which dropped to 5 runs below average last year by UZR. His OBP was .240 last year. .240. That'd be bad if it was a BATTING AVERAGE. He slugged .293. But I think Dayton Moore is learning. He's explained it entirely as a depth move, an emergency backup in case something happens with Aviles, Betemit, or Getz (in which case Aviles would have to slide over to 2B leaving the team shallow at 3B until Moustakas is ready). And he's assured us that when Moustakas is ready, the job is his. So as terrible as Feliz may be, he's not a problem.

And you can take a deep breath, we're done! It was a fairly active off-season for the Royals, and we didn't even mention the #1 farm system ranking by Baseball America except in passing. But we got that too. I don't know how to say this...but it's kind of a big deal. It's being ranked up there with the best of the decade and it was only bolstered this off-season. Dayton didn't create any barriers or problems for the kids with any signings, so that's a nice step too. All in all, the off-season turned out, Zack Greinke or no, positive for the Royals. In four words, Dayton Moore's finest yet. The Process really gets to start this season, even if only a few of the prospects will get to play full-time in Kansas City in the beginning. The mill of the process grinds slowly but exceedingly fine.*

*I know what you're thinking. "Did he just quote Will Ferrell and an ancient Greek expression in the same paragraph?" Well, that's just the kind of versatility we bring here at BADARW.

Now that the off-season is summed up and over, I for one can't wait for the season to start. I'm looking forward to just reading the daily news from spring training in the paper every day. Forget the record this year. It's all about the kids.

Less is Moore (The Offseason in Review!) Part 2

Quick and Unrelated: Rob Neyer, a blogger and writer for ESPN over the last 15 years is leaving the network. He has been hired as editor at www.sbnation.com though so there's that. He's been one of the best and most influential people over there since he began, a pioneer of internet sportswriting and he also happens to be a sabermetrician and Royals fan. It's an interesting trick of fate that a significant portion of the sabermetric community are Royals fans--it's certainly one of the most saber-friendly fan bases of the 30. It follows basic tragicomedy that the Royals front office is one of the least. In this case, correlation may be causation.

Anyway.

The most defining and controversial part of the off-season was the Zack Greinke trade. It wasn't anything any Royals fans particularly wanted- certainly Moore and Yost didn't want it either. But Zack did, and when GMDM's hand was forced, he made sure the deal fell in line with the plan. So without further adeu.

The Zack Greinke Trade- The Greinke trade saga started innocently enough, at least on its face. The Royals informed clubs they were willing to listen to offers from anyone on any player, but reportedly would need to be "blown away" to trade their Cy Young winner. As time went on and the rumor mill kept rolling, it seemed like there might be more to it than that. There were reports from several different places that Zack was demanding certain terms, certain locations he wanted to go and that he would not play in Kansas City anymore (a possible threat to skip spring training floated to the surface after the deal went through). I was skeptical personally because there were never any quotes directly from Zack saying any of that. Evidently my skepticism was unfounded.

Before the season ended, Zack was quoted as saying, "There's no reason for me to get real excited about [the prospects] because the chance of more than one of them making a major impact by the time my contract is up is pretty slim." Zack had two years left on his deal, which led me to believe this quote from Zack near the end of the season didn't carry any real significance. The Royals had two years to prove to him that The Process was worth it, and four opportunities to trade him along the way if they were overwhelmed by an offer (this off-season, trade deadline, next off-season, next trade deadline). As it turned out, the Royals took the first opportunity, though I can't blame them for it. It's doubtful if there was really even a choice. After the deal went through, the rumors of Zack demanding the trade were basically confirmed and had he not been traded, the saga appeared primed to turn ugly.

Outside of the rumored threats not to attend spring training, there were questions as to whether Zack would maintain his razor-sharp focus (and thus his high value) on a team not in contention, or more specfically, when he wasn't playing for anything--in a division race or a Cy Young award.

"The main reason I wanted to get out, I mean, preferred to get out of Kansas City is I wanted to be on a team that was trying to win this year...Just really wanted to be in a place where they were playing to win games right away." (Quotes from here) Zack's competitive streak is well known but so is his aloofness. In 2010, Zack appeared disinterested at times and his numbers reflect it. His numbers in 2009 even reflect a similar idea. I don't want it to seem like I'm questioning his heart, though. The season is a grind and I think Zack rises when he sees a real challenge.

Through May 26th 2009 (The Royals in contention, off to the infamous 18-11 start): Greinke carried a .84 ERA with 81 Ks and only 12 BBs in 75 innings. An ERA under 1 run per game, through 10 games. A K/BB ratio of 6.75. 4 complete games. Name your statistic, Zack was historic. It simply can't be overstated. Arguably the best start to a season in the history of whatever (thank you, anonymous Royals official). After Zack's start on the 26th, the Royals hit 23-23 and didn't reach .500 for the rest of the season.

From May 31st (his next start) to August 8th: an ERA of 3.84 with no complete games. Obviously still nothing to slouch at, but a significant outlier from the beginning and end of the season.

August 14th to end of season (as the Cy Young race is heating up): an ERA of 1.54 and his final complete game.

Zack's 2010 obviously was nothing like his 2009 (and everyone knew that was unrepeatable). On top of that, the Royals were never in contention from the start. For the majority of the season, his ERA hovered in the high 3s. However, his ERA hit 5.07 over his last 13 starts from July 26th til season's end, and he had 68 Ks with 29 BBs over those 87 innings. His K rate for the season dropped to 7.4 K/9 for the first time since pre-2007. Any advanced statistics aside (and his Fielder Independent Pitching, FIP, a defense-independent statistic, suggests his ERA was a bit unlucky for the season), it looked as if Zack's focus may have waned as the doldrums of another losing season with no hope from the start headed to a close.

I can see why the Royals may have wanted to deal him sooner rather than later, all these things considered. Now, with Greinke and DeJesus traded in the same off-season, the two most recognizable faces of the franchise are gone. Probably the majority of Royals fans chose one of them as their favorite player, with the exception of some Billy Butler fans and a Soria fan or two. A decent portion of the fan-base is justifiably disappointed that those two are gone. However, dealing Dave made the most sense for Mission 2012/2013 as explained in the last post. And unfortunately, Zack clearly didn't want to be apart of what was going on in Kansas City anymore, and I can't be mad at the team for that. In any case, that basically leaves Billy as the de facto Face of the Franchise.

Billy's words: "You don't want somebody to be somewhere they don't want to. That being said, Zack made it public that he didn't want to be here anymore. As the Kansas City Royals, you don't want that around. It's not good for your team." Billy in another interview said that he's "not trying to be" the face of the franchise, but it's obvious to him and everyone else that he's got to lead now. "I’m prepared to do whatever is best for this organization moving forward. (I want) to make every person in the clubhouse better, as a player, as a person, whatever it takes. If I could be half of what Mike Sweeney was, I’ll be happy with it. I’m just striving to be ... that type of guy for this organization." His words say it all well enough.

And soon enough, the young guys will arrive and they are generally reputed as quality people (see: Mike Moustakas, math homework). They'll fill the void.

Now that we've spent 1000 words on why it was okay to deal Zack, let's move on to the return. Obviously we can't know for sure what other teams offered, but we have some ideas about a few (Washington probably offered a package including Jordan Zimmerman, Michael Burgess, and a couple of others). The overall reaction to the trade is that it wasn't bad, but underwhelming. However, when compared to other trades of pitching aces, it appears to have been a fairly favorable return. Rany Jazayerli does a very extensive comparison of such trades here. I'll stick to analyzing the prospects.

1. Alcides Escobar- Escobar is the biggest name of the four prospects, having been as high as the #12 prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2010 season according to Baseball America. His debut performance in the majors was fairly unimpressive: .235/.288/.326 in 145 games. However, he was only 23 at the time and his BABIP* suggests he was significantly unlucky. Escobar's actual BABIP last year was .264, but his xBABIP was .311, a difference of nearly 50 points! His numbers thus probably should've been closer to .260/.305/.340. Still not that great, but for a 23 year old SS in his first extensive experience in the majors, its perfectly acceptable. When compared to Betancourt (and that is another huge plus of the deal--Milwaukee had to take him with Greinke), they are at worst a wash offensively. Betancourt showed surprising power last year, slugging .405 with 16 HRs and 29 doubles. But his OBP was a miserable .288, also known as the same as 23 year old Escobar but with the extra padding of .24 points of batting average. On top of that, Betancourt is without question the slowest shortstop in baseball, while Escobar hit 10 triples last year and is a talented base-stealer: in the minors, he stole 176 bases over 5 years (just over 29 per year). But Escobar wasn't targeted for his offensive value anyway. Escobar with a little improvement (and his upside is definitely still there) would be a clearly better offensive player than Betancourt especially given his unfortunate luck last year.

*BABIP stands for "Batting Average on Balls in Play." It measures how often a ball put in play (home runs aren't counted) falls for a hit. BABIP is often used to see if a player's batting average is sustainable, if he's been lucky or unlucky at the plate. Obviously this number will vary depending on the player (though average BABIP is assumed to be around .300), based on speed, ground ball/fly ball ratio, line drive %, the player's home park, and many other factors. Given these different factors, xBABIP is what a player's BABIP should be, his expected BABIP. If a player's xBABIP is much higher than their actual BABIP, the player was unlucky and could normally be expected to hit better. If the xBABIP is much lower than their actual BABIP, the player was lucky and shouldn't be expected to hit quite as well in the future.

Escobar has been widely regarded as a defensive savant at shortstop, and in his rookie year his UZR* was 3.8 which is about 4 runs saved above average. That's not eye-popping, but it is fairly above average and it's generally accepted that it takes about three years worth of defensive statistics to be accurate anyway. Royals fans will notice a huge difference immediately from Betancourt's average of -12.5 (!) over the last three years. That's 16 extra runs saved per year and honestly that's probably on the conservative side given Escobar's reputation. The rule of thumb is generally that 10 runs equals 1 win for reasons I'll readily admit I haven't looked into, but that means on the conservative side Escobar will add almost 2 wins to the Royals over Betancourt on defense alone.

*UZR is Ultimate Zone Rating. It's one of the more advanced defensive metrics and the one I will be using because I don't have access to Dewan's Plus/Minus system. UZR is a counting stat and adds or subtracts based on runs saved or cost compared to a 'league average' player at that position. Runs saved based on range, arm, and double plays (mostly for infielders, naturally) are calculated and then added together.

Put the most simple way I can, Alcides Escobar at 23 years old is already the best shortstop the Royals have had since I was born.

2. Lorenzo Cain- Of the four pieces the Royals got in return, Cain is the most exciting to me. In 43 games last year (3 too many games for him to qualify as a rookie this year), Cain hit .306/.348/.415. His BABIP suggests some luck, but he'll probably walk more than his measly 5.7% walk rate (league average is 8.7%) as well. Cain's main asset is his speed- he and Escobar were the pieces that Moore wanted specifically. Moore asked for up the middle help on defense and he absolutely got it. Cain's UZR over that time was 2.0 and extrapolated over 150 games would be 7.6. Again, the sample size is miniscule, but most of that UZR is based on his range which by all accounts is otherworldly. His instincts are also reportedly very good. He stole 7 bases over the time frame and was only caught stealing once. When let loose, he and Escobar could be downright frightening for other teams on the basepaths. Cain will turn 25 at the beginning of the season this year, which is a little older than I wish he was, but obviously there is still time for growth. Cain looks very promising from every angle and I'm excited to get to watch him. My only worry is what I expressed in the last post-- that Yost will start Melky Cabrera over him.

3. Jeremy Jeffress- Jeffress is a very different beast than the first two prospects. Jeffress is a 23 year old relief pitcher who has had control problems and I don't mean on the field (but he's had that too). Jeffress was and may still be, way into marijuana. He was suspended in the minors for violating the drug policy, and was one strike (the policy is three strikes total) away from being completely banned from the game (he did serve a 100 game suspension). Jeffress has presumably quit using it, though the drug isn't tested for or banned in the majors for some seemingly inconsistent and strange reason. He also had control problems on the field, however, posting a walk rate of 5.5 BB/9 over his entire time in the minors. This is not atypical among fireballers, and Jeffress has hit as high as 102 mph on the gun. He has a power curve to go with his fastball that complements it well. Evidently future HOFer Trevor Hoffman took Jeffress under his wing some last year though and may have helped him get things figured out in his life and with his walk rate. In the majors it was still 5.4, but that was in a very sample size of 10 innings. In the minors last year, it dropped to 3.3 per 9 innings, and he averaged 12 K/9. He's obviously a back of the bullpen candidate and will either start in AAA or take his place as the 7th or 8th inning guy this year (probably 7th given Tim Collins's ridiculous 13.3 K/9 over his entire career in the minors). If Jeffress really does have things figured out, he could be a very valuable bullpen piece and if he doesn't, it hardly makes or breaks anything. The kid has potential to be really good though. Hopefully he gets a chance to talk to newly hired minor league coach Willie Aikens, a former Royal who struggled with drugs throughout a career that was ultimately derailed by them. Aikens has since turned his life around and gives all the credit to God, becoming a Christian during his time in prison. A good summary of the story by Sam Mellinger can be found here. I have no doubt he could help Jeffress in all sorts of ways.

4. Jake Odorizzi- Odorizzi is the youngest (20) of the four prospects and the least known quantity of the bunch. However, he was the linchpin to the deal that the Royals needed in order to accept the offer from Milwaukee and to complete the decimation of the Brewers farm system, now the worst in the majors. Just from looking at the numbers you can see Odorizzi has stupendous control (135 Ks and 40 BBs in 120.2 IP in A ball last year) and the scouts confirm it. He has atleast two plus pitches (though I've heard three) in his fastball which can hit the mid-90s, his slider, and curveball, though his change up needs work. Baseball Prospectus believes he has the stuff to be a fringe #2 starter in the bigs if all works out. He was the top pitching prospect for the Brewers and falls in at about the 5th or 6th best pitching prospect for the Royals and barely in the top 10 overall, which is incredible given that, in the words of Baseball Prospectus, "he'd be an easy top-three selection in most organizations." But Royals fans are used to the borderline absurdity of the talent in the farm system by now. The second best isn't close. Odorizzi's progress will deserve being watched, and if all goes well we'll probably see him at the K around 2013.

Overall I'd say the deal worked out pretty well. We lost an ace, but gained two valuable every day starters with plus defense and plenty of potential, a strong back of the bullpen candidate, and a young pitcher with good control and a high ceiling. Better value would be hard to find. Zack was and still is my favorite pitcher (bar none), and he'll definitely benefit from going to the inferior league. I'm sure he's excited to play for a team with a good offense and potential to compete and especially to get to hit. Unfortunately for him, he'll still have Betancourt at shortstop.

Coming Up

I had previously assumed the Royals were done making moves before spring training, but Dayton Moore has a habit of making fools out of us all... well, he has his habits, anyway. The Royals signed Pedro Feliz to a minor league deal worth $800k. Not exactly exciting but its okay. Just a depth move. But we'll get to that, Meche's retirement, the Francis and Chen signings, the Butler extension, and maybe a little talk about the Baseball America rankings next time.

Less is Moore (The Offseason in Review!) Part 1

This off-season for Dayton Moore, while busy, could be defined by minimalism, by "less." But we'll get to that. It has certainly been Moore's best off-season with the Royals (which admittedly did not require much), and that despite signing Jeff Francoeur, which had been predicted by Royals fans (and even called for by brilliant Royals fan and blogger Rany Jazayerli, here) since things began souring between him and the Braves in early 2009. Yes, Mission 2012 (or 2013) is inching ever closer and while at the end of the off-season last year, Sports Illustrated rated Moore the worst GM in baseball, today he presides over the #1 farm system according to Baseball America and pretty much everyone else in the world. SI may want to move him up a few spots.

By now, the entire baseball world is very familiar with GMDM's history of questionable acquisitions (Guillen, Betancourt, the Farnsworth signing, the Horacio Ramirez deal, etc.) and there's no need to rehash it--this is going to be long enough as it is. But for the record it's a reversal of the Jekyll and Hyde situation.

Barring something totally out of the [powder] blue, the Royals appear done making moves and are ready to take what they have into spring training. So for practical purposes, the off-season is over. Thus we can begin picking it apart!

Every move this off-season has been made with the prospects in mind, which is in itself an improvement. None of the Royals' FA signings are more than one year deals and the trades have all been reasonable if some would call them underwhelming (for the record, I'm relatively happy with them). The biggest worry we all had was that Moore might sign someone that would end up blocking one of the prospects but instead he's done exactly the right thing-- gone after bargain free agents with rebound potential on one year deals. Worst-case scenario, they don't rebound and the Royals cut them loose after the year is up. Best-case scenario, they DO rebound and the Royals can deal them at the trade deadline or sign them long-term if they're somehow really too good to pass up (case in point, Wilson Betemit's bizarre 2010). Moore has kept the spending at a minimum and really done only what's necessary to avoid rushing the prospects this off-season and field a major league team, realizing that it's now just a matter of letting the farm system (hopefully) do its magic. Doing as little as necessary has defined this off-season. Less is more.

Now that we're through all that, the Royals' off-season moves in chronological order (now with more analysis!):


Trading David DeJesus for Vin Mazzaro and Justin Marks- This deal with the A's has elicited mostly negative reviews and it's understandable to a point. DeJesus was eerily consistent in his time with the Royals, from 2004-2008 on-basing between .351-.366, taking a slight dip to .344 in 2009 and topping out last year at .384. He slugged between .430 and .450 nearly every year and he generally was a productive outfielder who could play all three spots. Last year was a career year for him, putting up a .318/.384/.443 line in 91 games before colliding with the wall in New York. He was also the Royal who would been with the organization the longest and a sentimental favorite of the KC community in general.

However, DeJesus was also nearing the end of his contract and would have cost $6 million in 2011 and carry a similar price once he hit free agency the year after. At 30 years old and not looking to compete in 2011 or maybe even in 2012 and coming off that career year, it made perfect sense for the Royals to sell high. Many were looking forward to it, believing he could bring a big return at the trade deadline, but unfortunately he tore a tendon in his thumb just before the deadline and had to go to the DL for the remainder of the season. The injury undoubtedly drove the price down for him and most of the negativity surrounding the deal is due to the seemingly small return. Some thought the Royals could've waited and gotten more. Of course, we'll never know.

The Royals netted Mazzaro and Marks in the deal, Mazzaro being the key component. Mazzaro, only 24, doesn't become a free agent until 2015 and has had some about league average innings at the major league level. In the minors he relied largely on getting ground balls from his sinker and had success, though in the majors he seems to have lost that. And missing his main weapon, Mazzaro has struck out only 5.8 per 9 innings, and walked nearly 4, which simply isn't very good. If he can regain his sink, he could regain some real value though if the Lethal Lefties (we're still working on a nickname for the Royals many talented lefty pitching prospects) pan out he would probably slide in as a #4 or #5 in the rotation. He will probably be the Royals 4th man in the rotation this year. Any improvement and thus any value from Mazzaro depends on pitching coach Bob McClure who has a mixed record of success (Greinke, Meche pre-injury, Tejeda, Soria) and failure (Bannister, Davies, Colon). Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Justin Marks is not just a throw in, with decent peripherals (more than 1 K/IP but over 3 BB/9 as well) and will likely start 2011 in A or A+ at just 22 years old. He pitched well at Louisville in college and he's a lefty which GMs just love. He needs some polish, his ERA in the minors has so far been unimpressive but that doesn't tell the whole story. In a couple of years he could really be worth watching.

All in all, the deal felt rushed, Moore pulling the trigger in November, but those jumping to call it a huge loss for the Royals are off-base. Worst-case scenario, Mazzaro doesn't improve and he provides just below league average innings-eating until he gets unseated by one of the prospects and Marks goes nowhere. Best case, Mazzaro gets his sink back and becomes a fringe #3 while Marks turns into a bullpen arm or a back of the rotation starter. The A's know almost exactly what they're getting in DeJesus for the year they've got him (barring an extension). His numbers shouldn't decrease too much over the next few years, given his skill set-he hits for good average with solid plate discipline and good instincts in the field. Those are the kind of skills that age well. He'll provide some veteran presence for their many young guys as well, but they'll have a tough time competing against the Rangers in the AL West if you ask me. But divisional predictions is a post for another time (near the end of spring training). In any case, the A's probably win this trade but it's not quite as clear cut as everyone seems to think.


Nathan Adcock taken from the Rule 5 Draft- Not a lot to be said here. Adcock is 22 and will likely spend the year in the minors if a deal is worked out (similar to Edgar Osuna last year) and has several pitches that could develop into league average or plus and some think, due to his size, he can increase his velocity on his fastball which currently tops out at 92. Adcock has learned some control evidenced by his  BB/9 rate, 2.4 last year, and his K rate isn't bad (over 7 per 9 innings) either. Could turn into a decent starter with a couple more years of seasoning and growth. The worry though, that Adcock would have to fill a valuable spot on the active roster combined with the DeJesus deal was enough to make one believe this off-season for Moore might just be a "next verse, same as the first (and second, and third...)" kind of scenario.

But then things began to turn.

Jeff Francoeur signs- Oh, the marriage the baseball world had been expecting for two years now finally happened alright. Moore's love for Frenchy among ex-Braves has never been a secret, but even as big a joke as this was for some and the worry this would naturally raise among Royals fans, the deal turned out to be surprisingly okay. Dayton gave Frenchy $2.5 million for one year and a mutual option for $4 million, which I can only assume is to fill some arbitrary word count Dayton sets for all his contracts, given how many mutual options he's handed out in his career. If Frenchy rebounds this year, he'll decline because he'll be worth more than $4 million. If he doesn't, the Royals will decline. In any case he brings his famous laser-rocket-cannon arm to right field and some veteran leadership along with his depressing ideas about on-base percentage. But maybe he'll get better since at the K we do show OBP on the scoreboard! A man can dream. But seriously, he does seem to have wised up some if his words here can be trusted. He's definitely an entertaining guy and great for the clubhouse if nothing else. He's not blocking any prospects this year (Wil Myers will probably spend the entire season in the minors but might be a September call-up) and if he's doing decent at all will probably be flipped at the deadline. Though most wouldn't have expected it, signing Francoeur turned out surprisingly...I'll say it. It turned out positively.

Melky Cabrera signs- The Melkman signed not long after Frenchy and was presumably going to be a place-holder in center field this year as well, because apparently the Royals weren't fond of Blanco or Dyson taking the role. Given how much love Dyson seemed to get from the organization it was a little surprising, but evidently the Royals for some reason promised Cabrera the role outright--not just the opportunity to win it and practically guaranteeing it, which is rare. Obviously, Zack Greinke forcing a trade, which will be discussed in the next post, changed things considerably. The worry here is that Ned Yost might honor his promise and start Cabrera despite the situation changing considerably. In any case, he's signed for one year and $1.25 million. Let's say this another way. Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur COMBINED are making what Jason Kendall is going to make this year. Sigh.

The Royals are obviously all-in on this youth movement, so I would be surprised (albeit mildly given some of the decisions we've seen on the major league level the last couple years) if Lorenzo Cain didn't start over Cabrera in center. Cain beginning in AAA and coming up later is a possibility, but he'll get the job sometime this year. Cabrera is a speed bump at worst and if he does anything he'll be flipped at the deadline just like Frenchy.

Check back in a few days for an in depth look at the Greinke trade.

Some Introductions Are In Order

Hello and welcome. My name is Adam and this is my first real earnest attempt at blogging.  I've decided to begin this little adventure at the prodding of some around me who seem to think I have something worth saying in the field of sports. I've grown up in Kansas City in a home that loves the Chiefs, Royals, and Mizzou Tigers and over the last 8 years or so I've become a very devoted fan of each as my understanding of the sports they play has grown more and more. Not surprisingly then, this blog of mine will primarily focus on the Chiefs and Royals, but no doubt it will dabble in other matters around the NFL and MLB also. The Missouri Tigers may find themselves the focus of some posts here or there as well, especially around March Madness. That's the plan I have in my head, and I intend to work by it, but I ask that you don't hold me to it too strictly--after all, "Many are the plans in a man's heart..." (Proverbs 19:21a) I certainly can't omit that some things may compel a post in my mind that don't fit the above categories.

I'm a strong believer* in advanced statistics in baseball, and occasionally let them wet my feet in football as well, though incorporating it, for me, is much slower going (no different from the rest of the NFL world). But I have some love for you scouts and the "eye-test" too, so please keep the torches and pitchforks down!

I'm looking forward to writing this blog and hopefully having some good discussion with anyone who reads--there are so many different angles to look at sports from and reasonable people can disagree. I hope I can provide some fresh perspective and maybe bring light to some things that aren't always so obvious or conventional. Naturally I hope you can take some measure of enjoyment from my posts as well.

Now that we've established all that, let the fun(?) begin!

*After reading some of my posts, you may be surprised to know my glasses have very thin rims and I normally just wear contacts. I swear I'm only so nerdy!