As promised, here are my odds each position player makes the Opening Day Roster out of Spring Training:
Catchers-
Cody Clark- 28, in AAA and nothing else of note to say. You gotta have a catcher on every team. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Ryan Eigsti- Slow progression through the minors suggests he is the next Cody Clark. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Jason Kendall- See Mendoza, Luis. Injury should keep him out til May. Odds of Making Roster: 2%
Lucas May- Supposedly has decent power but defense is also a question mark. Should back up Pena to start the season. Odds of Making Roster: 75%
Salvador Perez- The catcher of the future. The kid can play great defense and started to hit last year. Great article on him by Bob Dutton of the KC Star here. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Brayan Pena- The starter to begin the year, certainly earned this chance. Can hit a little, and he's the happiest man I've ever seen on a baseball field. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Manny Pina- The dark horse for the catching competition, he plays excellent defense but can't hit at all. Odds of Making Roster: 25%
Infielders-
Joaquin Arias- A utility guy, doesn't bring a lot to the table. His primary asset is filling a spot in the minors. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Mike Aviles- Struggled defensively at 2B last year, the odds on favorite to start at 3B til Moustakas is ready. Talented hitter, when Mouse is ready should be utility INF or 2B. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Wilson Betemit- Aviles competition to start at 3B, will be utility man if Aviles moves to 2B when Moustakas arrives. Should be dealt at the deadline. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Jeff Bianchi- Often forgotten because Tommy John surgery kept him out last year, Bianchi hit well in 2009 at SS in AA. Could compete for utility spot but unlikely. Odds of Making Roster: 10%
Billy Butler- The Face of the Franchise, we'd all like to see Billy's power numbers go up, but his approach at the plate will stay the same. HRs should go up anyway. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Alcides Escobar- The main 'get' of the Greinke deal, will be a very interesting player to watch. Brings a huge defensive upgrade at SS. Need his bat to develop this year. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Irving Falu- Falu will turn 28 this year. Just too old. Good organizational depth, has played every outfield spot and all but 1B (and C) on the infield in his career. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Pedro Feliz- Insurance in case of injury to Aviles or Betemit before Moustakas is ready. Could mentor Mouse on defense in ST, known for his glove throughout his career. Odds of Making Roster: 10%
Chris Getz- Has to prove he can hit a lick this year, kid is fast and can play good defense. Will start at 2B with chance to prove himself or lose the job. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Johnny Giavotella- Hit well in the minors, but defense is suspect. Royals have him working with Glenn Hubbard, a defensive whiz with a rep. of fixing suspect defenders. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Eric Hosmer- Just here for the experience this time, will start in AAA or arrive there quickly. Could be a September call up or else will be ready next year. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Kila Ka'aihue- Will split time with Billy at 1B/DH, and he will mash this year. May be a candidate for trade when Hosmer is ready unless Hosmer moves to the OF. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Mike Moustakas- With a great spring, could force his way onto the roster, but more likely will show up mid-to-late June. He signifies the real beginning of Mission 2013. Odds of Making Roster: 15%
Clint Robinson- Won the AAA Triple Crown last year, is a little old at 26 for a AAA player. Could be interesting if Billy or Kila got hurt. Let's hope not. Odds of Making Roster: 1%
Lance Zawadzki- See: Arias, Joaquin. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Outfielders-
Gregor Blanco- Despite playing well for the Royals in center last year, Blanco is only maybe competing for 4th OF. Cabrera in CF and if he falters, the job is Cain's. Odds of Making Roster: 25%
Melky Cabrera- Seems poised to "win" the job for CF due to a stupid promise, but Royals shouldn't hesitate to replace him with Cain if he doesn't excel. Odds of Making Roster: 90%
Lorenzo Cain- Sadly odds are slim he will start the season in CF. Probably will play a little in AAA first, maybe will arrive with Moustakas? Odds of Making Roster: 10%
Brett Carroll- Depth signing probably. Hopefully. The longest, longest odds for 4th OF. Odds of Making Roster: 5%
Jarrod Dyson- 4th OF? He can't hit. And he's old for a prospect. But very fast and plays good D, and Royals brass loves him. Odds of Making Roster: 20%
Jeff Francoeur- The starting RF, would be nice to see him rebound some. Will provide alright defense and important veteran leadership. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Alex Gordon- Make or break year for Alex Gordon. Been working with Kevin Seitzer all off-season, great work ethic. Would be nice to see the batting average go up some. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
David Lough- Competing for the 4th OF spot with all the others. He's had the opportunity for that for a few years now, would be nice if he finally got it. DeJesus-Lite. Odds of Making Roster: 25%
Mitch Maier- The complement to Gregor Blanco. Both hit for okay average and get on base, Blanco is fast and Maier hits with a little more power. Odds of Making Roster: 25%
Derrick Robinson- The organization never seems to want to give him a chance. Like Dyson except younger and a better base-stealer and a hitter last year. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Well that was a lot longer than I thought it would be! 65 players is quite a few, I suppose. We may do a short post in the future on the projected line-up, rotation, and bullpen, and what those will look like after the trade deadline. The latter will be more exciting. For now, let's enjoy Spring Training!
Update: Here's a cool video from Joel Goldberg from Surprise where he talks with a lot of the prospects briefly. It's nice to be able to put some faces with the names. Definitely worth checking out.
Feb 19, 2011
Feb 18, 2011
Pitching Projections
Spring Training has started, the weather in Missouri is in the 70s, and all is right with the world. Position players have all arrived at the complex in Surprise, Arizona today and the first full work-out is tomorrow. Obviously a lot of things will change as Spring Training (capitalized from sheer excitement) goes on, but coming out of the off-season, here are the odds each player makes the Opening Day roster as well as a sentence or two summing up them and/or their chances as I see them. Odds are, of course, barring unforeseen injury. Players listed in alphabetical order.
Pitchers-
Nathan Adcock- Adcock was acquired in the Rule 5 Draft from the Pirates. Only reached A+ ball. Has to stay on the 25 man roster the whole year for the Royals to keep him. Odds of Making Roster: 20%
Noel Arguelles- Arguelles had to have shoulder surgery last year and has yet to pitch at any level for the Royals. On restricted throwing program now, should start in A ball. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Henry Barrera- Righty bullpen arm, already 25 and only in AA ball. Good strikeout numbers, could be first up if a regular bullpen arm is injured. Odds of Making Roster: 10%
Jesse Chavez- Terrible. Just terrible. The mythical AAAA player. Unfortunately the Royals seemed to like him last year. I don't get it. Odds of Making Roster: 50%
Bruce Chen- Probably the #3 starter in the rotation, as sad as that may be. Great clubhouse guy though, very friendly and pretty funny. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Louis Coleman- A righty with great control to go along with a 10 K/9, would be very surprising if he didn't earn a spot as a late inning reliever. Odds of Making Roster: 90%
Tim Collins- Stolen from Atlanta in a trade last year. A unique player, a 5'7" lefty with a career 13.3 K/9 in the minors and is only 20. Almost certainly will work the 7th/8th. Odds of Making Roster: 95%
Aaron Crow- Long shot at long relief duty, struggled too much last year, the necessary demotion from AA is a cause for concern. Odds of Making Roster: 20%
Kyle Davies- The #4 or #5 for the rotation has never really stabilized in the majors. This will be his last shot to prove anything for the Royals. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Danny Duffy- The first of the promising lefty starters. Could start in the bullpen and eventually slide into the back of the rotation. Odds of Making Roster: 40%
Christopher Dwyer- The second of the lefty starters, Dwyer's control needs work and will almost certainly return to AA to start the year. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Jeff Francis- The #2 starter and #1if Hochevar shows none of his potential and all his disappointment. Will be traded at the deadline if he pitches even okay. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Blaine Hardy- Coleman's lefty late-inning parter in the minors will get a long look as well. He's ready. Odds of Making Roster: 90%
Gaby Hernandez- A minor league spot-filler. May never see the majors. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Luke Hochevar- The #1 starter that has shown flashes of great potential yet majorly disappointed. Will have every chance to prove himself last year. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Greg Holland- Technically the first Dayton Moore draft pick to reach the majors last year, struggles with control and doesn't do anything too special. Odds of Making Roster: 40%
Jeremy Jeffress- Righty that can dial it up past 100 mph, but has had control issues. If he's got those figured out, he could be a very good 8th inning guy. May start in AAA. Odds of Making Roster: 75%
Patrick Keating- a righty with a K rate to match Collins, his walk rate is just average but more than acceptable. Hasn't gone past AA yet but could force Yost's hand. Odds of Making Roster: 40%
John Lamb- Moved up three levels last year but struggled at the end in AA. Will certainly be better this year. Next year will be his time in the rotation. This one could be special. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Vin Mazzaro- The #4 starter in the rotation this year, if he gets any of his sink back he can be valuable. Still only 24. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Luis Mendoza- Please, please, please no. For the love of all things holy, PLEASE NO!! Odds of Making Roster: 1%
Zack Miner- Miner is a decent righty veteran that could be a spot starter and will start in the 'pen or minors when he's healthy. Will probably start the season on the DL. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Mike Montgomery- Word around baseball is he projects as about a #2 starter, which to me says fringe #1. Yost seems to want him to spend some time in AAA. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Sean O'Sullivan- His main asset is his youth. Will probably be the loser in the rotation competition and doesn't have a spot in the bullpen. If he could ever strike anyone out... Odds of Making Roster: 20%
Kevin Pucetas- Pucetas was good in the lower levels but the Giants rushed him, skipping AA. His primary value is in not being Jose Guillen. Odds of Making Roster: 5%
Steven Shell- Could be a surprise, but likely won't quite fit onto the roster. Will sit and wait in AAA in case of injury. Odds of Making Roster: 20%
Brandon Sisk- Another lefty bullpen guy, 24 years old and big on the strikeouts. A year behind Hardy, not quite there yet. Just in spring training to get a taste. Odds of Making Roster: 5%
Will Smith- Don't you wish he were that one? Young and despite reaching AAA with the Angels, will start in the low minors with the Royals. Here for the experience, like Sisk. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Joakim Soria- The Royals' most valuable player except for Billy Butler and at an absurdly cheap price. Smartest or luckiest move the Royals have made in years, getting him. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Everett Teaford- Long shot for the rotation, will sneak in the back of it later in the year. Good odds of making the bullpen if not the rotation. Odds of Making Roster: 75%
Robinson Tejeda- A sure thing if healthy. Control finally showed up last year and he was exciting to watch. Looking forward to it again. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Kanekoa Texeira- A decent warm body in the bullpen last year, not enough to make what will probably be the team's biggest strength this year. Odds of Making Roster: 10%
Blake Wood- Has a fastball that touches the high 90s, but low strikeout numbers. Needs more of those and fewer walks to be any good. Stiff competition. Odds of Making Roster: 50%
That's all the pitchers and just over half the invitees to Spring Training. We'll bring the rest of the projections in a couple of days.
Pitchers-
Nathan Adcock- Adcock was acquired in the Rule 5 Draft from the Pirates. Only reached A+ ball. Has to stay on the 25 man roster the whole year for the Royals to keep him. Odds of Making Roster: 20%
Noel Arguelles- Arguelles had to have shoulder surgery last year and has yet to pitch at any level for the Royals. On restricted throwing program now, should start in A ball. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Henry Barrera- Righty bullpen arm, already 25 and only in AA ball. Good strikeout numbers, could be first up if a regular bullpen arm is injured. Odds of Making Roster: 10%
Jesse Chavez- Terrible. Just terrible. The mythical AAAA player. Unfortunately the Royals seemed to like him last year. I don't get it. Odds of Making Roster: 50%
Bruce Chen- Probably the #3 starter in the rotation, as sad as that may be. Great clubhouse guy though, very friendly and pretty funny. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Louis Coleman- A righty with great control to go along with a 10 K/9, would be very surprising if he didn't earn a spot as a late inning reliever. Odds of Making Roster: 90%
Tim Collins- Stolen from Atlanta in a trade last year. A unique player, a 5'7" lefty with a career 13.3 K/9 in the minors and is only 20. Almost certainly will work the 7th/8th. Odds of Making Roster: 95%
Aaron Crow- Long shot at long relief duty, struggled too much last year, the necessary demotion from AA is a cause for concern. Odds of Making Roster: 20%
Kyle Davies- The #4 or #5 for the rotation has never really stabilized in the majors. This will be his last shot to prove anything for the Royals. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Danny Duffy- The first of the promising lefty starters. Could start in the bullpen and eventually slide into the back of the rotation. Odds of Making Roster: 40%
Christopher Dwyer- The second of the lefty starters, Dwyer's control needs work and will almost certainly return to AA to start the year. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Jeff Francis- The #2 starter and #1if Hochevar shows none of his potential and all his disappointment. Will be traded at the deadline if he pitches even okay. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Blaine Hardy- Coleman's lefty late-inning parter in the minors will get a long look as well. He's ready. Odds of Making Roster: 90%
Gaby Hernandez- A minor league spot-filler. May never see the majors. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Luke Hochevar- The #1 starter that has shown flashes of great potential yet majorly disappointed. Will have every chance to prove himself last year. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Greg Holland- Technically the first Dayton Moore draft pick to reach the majors last year, struggles with control and doesn't do anything too special. Odds of Making Roster: 40%
Jeremy Jeffress- Righty that can dial it up past 100 mph, but has had control issues. If he's got those figured out, he could be a very good 8th inning guy. May start in AAA. Odds of Making Roster: 75%
Patrick Keating- a righty with a K rate to match Collins, his walk rate is just average but more than acceptable. Hasn't gone past AA yet but could force Yost's hand. Odds of Making Roster: 40%
John Lamb- Moved up three levels last year but struggled at the end in AA. Will certainly be better this year. Next year will be his time in the rotation. This one could be special. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Vin Mazzaro- The #4 starter in the rotation this year, if he gets any of his sink back he can be valuable. Still only 24. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Luis Mendoza- Please, please, please no. For the love of all things holy, PLEASE NO!! Odds of Making Roster: 1%
Zack Miner- Miner is a decent righty veteran that could be a spot starter and will start in the 'pen or minors when he's healthy. Will probably start the season on the DL. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Mike Montgomery- Word around baseball is he projects as about a #2 starter, which to me says fringe #1. Yost seems to want him to spend some time in AAA. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Sean O'Sullivan- His main asset is his youth. Will probably be the loser in the rotation competition and doesn't have a spot in the bullpen. If he could ever strike anyone out... Odds of Making Roster: 20%
Kevin Pucetas- Pucetas was good in the lower levels but the Giants rushed him, skipping AA. His primary value is in not being Jose Guillen. Odds of Making Roster: 5%
Steven Shell- Could be a surprise, but likely won't quite fit onto the roster. Will sit and wait in AAA in case of injury. Odds of Making Roster: 20%
Brandon Sisk- Another lefty bullpen guy, 24 years old and big on the strikeouts. A year behind Hardy, not quite there yet. Just in spring training to get a taste. Odds of Making Roster: 5%
Will Smith- Don't you wish he were that one? Young and despite reaching AAA with the Angels, will start in the low minors with the Royals. Here for the experience, like Sisk. Odds of Making Roster: 0%
Joakim Soria- The Royals' most valuable player except for Billy Butler and at an absurdly cheap price. Smartest or luckiest move the Royals have made in years, getting him. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Everett Teaford- Long shot for the rotation, will sneak in the back of it later in the year. Good odds of making the bullpen if not the rotation. Odds of Making Roster: 75%
Robinson Tejeda- A sure thing if healthy. Control finally showed up last year and he was exciting to watch. Looking forward to it again. Odds of Making Roster: 100%
Kanekoa Texeira- A decent warm body in the bullpen last year, not enough to make what will probably be the team's biggest strength this year. Odds of Making Roster: 10%
Blake Wood- Has a fastball that touches the high 90s, but low strikeout numbers. Needs more of those and fewer walks to be any good. Stiff competition. Odds of Making Roster: 50%
That's all the pitchers and just over half the invitees to Spring Training. We'll bring the rest of the projections in a couple of days.
Feb 15, 2011
Zornography
Before we resume regularly scheduled Spring Training coverage, we have some Kansas City Chiefs off-season news! With Mike Solari, I mean, Bill Muir as the new offensive co-ordinator, the Chiefs had yet to get someone to "fix the quarterback," which had been the theme of the offense since the end of the 2009 season. Charlie Weis managed to do make some progress at it last year (as far as we know). Despite fading at the end, we are all witnesses to tremendous improvement in Cassel's decision-making last year.* But the job was/is far from finished. Muir had been the Chiefs' offensive line coach for the last 2 years, and previously was an offensive coordinator that did not call plays at Tampa Bay (he mostly worked with the O-line there) and a defensive coordinator (not often these days you see a coach work on both sides of the ball) for the Colts way back in 1989-1990. He will turn 69 during the 2011-2012 season (pessimists read: 2011-2012 lockout). The man is ancient.
*Much better 'Decision' making than the man in the picture.
His age + offensive line coach = Run philosophy.
Chiefs fans had plenty of reason to worry. The Chiefs missed on Mike McCoy and Greg Olson and had to settle on Muir. Clearly this meant Haley was calling the plays, which did not go so well in 2009 (though with two seasons under his belt, could go better in 2011), and either:
1) Haley would have to tutor Cassel himself on top of play-calling and normal head-coaching duties
or
2) Leave it to inexperienced though promising assistant Nick Sirianni and Bill Muir, who, despite his run philosophy I would still rather have than the other old man, the Curmudgeon and Herm Disciple himself, Dick Curl.
So on Tuesday, the Chiefs hired Jim Zorn* to be their QB coach. Zorn served as Baltimore's QB coach in 2010-2011 and was fired after their loss in the playoffs to the Steelers when Flacco threw for only 125 yards. Flacco threw for a career high in yards (3,622), TDs (25), and a career low in INTs (10) in the regular season though, and it looks like Zorn was served up as the sacrificial lamb to save Cam Cameron's job (whose offense, with the exception of Flacco, could be best described as "underwhelming." Ray Rice regressed and the WRs were miserable).
*Just look at that form!
Zorn also served a miserable time as head coach of the Redskins that he obviously wasn't ready for (he was taken from Seattle to be offensive coordinator, which he had never done before, and then promoted to head coach in the same off-season) and he caught a lot of [deserved] flak for it. But before all that, Zorn was the one in Seattle who turned Matt Hasselbeck into an effective quarterback, breaking several all-time Seahawks records that he set when he was the quarterback there.
Zorn was obviously promoted to his level of incompetence in Washington, but "fixing" quarterbacks is his expertise. If anyone can fix Cassel, it's him.
*Much better 'Decision' making than the man in the picture.
His age + offensive line coach = Run philosophy.
Chiefs fans had plenty of reason to worry. The Chiefs missed on Mike McCoy and Greg Olson and had to settle on Muir. Clearly this meant Haley was calling the plays, which did not go so well in 2009 (though with two seasons under his belt, could go better in 2011), and either:
1) Haley would have to tutor Cassel himself on top of play-calling and normal head-coaching duties
or
2) Leave it to inexperienced though promising assistant Nick Sirianni and Bill Muir, who, despite his run philosophy I would still rather have than the other old man, the Curmudgeon and Herm Disciple himself, Dick Curl.
So on Tuesday, the Chiefs hired Jim Zorn* to be their QB coach. Zorn served as Baltimore's QB coach in 2010-2011 and was fired after their loss in the playoffs to the Steelers when Flacco threw for only 125 yards. Flacco threw for a career high in yards (3,622), TDs (25), and a career low in INTs (10) in the regular season though, and it looks like Zorn was served up as the sacrificial lamb to save Cam Cameron's job (whose offense, with the exception of Flacco, could be best described as "underwhelming." Ray Rice regressed and the WRs were miserable).
*Just look at that form!
Zorn also served a miserable time as head coach of the Redskins that he obviously wasn't ready for (he was taken from Seattle to be offensive coordinator, which he had never done before, and then promoted to head coach in the same off-season) and he caught a lot of [deserved] flak for it. But before all that, Zorn was the one in Seattle who turned Matt Hasselbeck into an effective quarterback, breaking several all-time Seahawks records that he set when he was the quarterback there.
Zorn was obviously promoted to his level of incompetence in Washington, but "fixing" quarterbacks is his expertise. If anyone can fix Cassel, it's him.
Feb 11, 2011
Less is Moore (The Offseason in Review!) Part 3
Football season is over, a sad time for us all. We are left with just basketball for a few days... but it's only a few days! Royals pitchers and catchers report this coming Monday and position players report on the 18th. Obviously the 40-man roster will be there, but the Royals have invited 25 (!) minor leaguers not yet on the roster to camp to get a look as well. It will be the first time most of them have been there and some of them will be on the big league club when it's over. It's going to matter and it's going to be exciting. I will give the odds of each player breaking camp with the big league club in the next post. Unfortunately more and more people seem to think Lorenzo Cain will be starting in AAA barring a very strong spring. We'll see. But today, we're finishing up our discussion of the off-season! So let's get right down to it.
Jeff Francis signs- The Francis signing was by all accounts a steal. I haven't heard a single bad word about it. Jeff Francis, a 30 year old lefty, has spent his entire career thus far with the Rockies but in 2008 he tore the labrum in his shoulder. He came back last year and despite his ERA climbing to 5.00, he appears to have been fully healed and ready to return. One would think that his ERA suffered some perhaps from pitching at Coors, but his ERA was actually slightly lower at home (4.86) than on the road (5.15)--a strange trend that has been a pattern his whole career. His ERA has looked a little high over the years, and he is going to the superior league which won't be healthy for it. But the Royals' defense, one of the worst in baseball last year*, was only a few percentage points (.004) below Colorado's and stands to improve significantly this year with Escobar at short, probably Kila at first, and [hopefully] Cain in center.
*The full list of defensive rankings can be found at Baseball Prospectus, here. The statistic, Defensive Efficiency, is relatively simple and basically equates to (1-BABIP allowed).
The best thing about the deal is probably the price: 1 year, $2 million guaranteed with $2 million in incentives for a lefty who was the Rockies number 1 starter the year they went to the World Series. He probably could've made more money elsewhere, but word is Francis wanted to work with McClure who was a coach in the Rockies minor league system when he was coming up, and knew he needed to re-establish himself in the league and was basically guaranteed to start in Kansas City.
Along with his high ERA last year, his K/9 rate was only 5.8 which isn't great, but the good news is his ground ball rate was up to 47% (a fairly high GB rate) from about 44% previously in his career. On top of that, his Left On Base % (Strand Rate, or LOB%) was very low at 64.5% last year. The average pitcher will probably have an LOB% around 70%-72% and its generally accepted as a number, like BABIP that represents luck to a degree, though, for instance, guys with lots of Ks will be able to strand runners more easily, giving them a naturally higher LOB%. Francis's LOB% has hovered around 70% for his career, so it's likely luck played a bit of a factor. On top of that, his control appeared better than ever, walking just 2 batters per 9 innings, which is very good. For a comparison, that's the exact same walk rate as Zack in his Cy Young season.
If I haven't thrown enough numbers at you yet... last year, Francis's xFIP (which as you will recall, is basically what a player's ERA should be, taking fielding out of the equation) was 3.94, the lowest of his career.
And he was just getting back into the swing of things after a long hiatus last year. Odds are he will be better this year. The Royals only have him on a one year deal, but Dayton Moore rang up a W here and can probably flip him to a contender at the deadline for a talented prospect. The consensus seems to be that Luke Hochevar will be given every opportunity to be the number 1 starter, but if Hoch sucks it up at spring training, the job will fall to Francis. Even for one year, he brings some excitement. The guy can pitch and we got him cheap.
Bruce Chen signs- The sentimental favorite. Many Royals fans are now familiar with the chant popularized by Will Ferrell, "C'MON CHEN!" Elegant in its simplicity, that phrase and Chen's own likability and sense of humor have made him a clubhouse and fan favorite. Chen is another lefty who also signed a one year deal for $2 million (with $1.5 million in incentives), but that's where his similarities to Francis end. However, he is similar to one of his former teammates in another way...
Last year, Bruce Chen and Zack Greinke had the same ERA.
Let me repeat that.
Last year, Bruce Chen and Zack Greinke had the same ERA. (4.17)
But that's also where their similarities end (and it might say more about Greinke last year than Chen). Chen's xFIP last year was 5.01 and he does not exactly have a history of success. He will turn 34 in June this season, so he's no spring chicken either but we can basically count on just below league average innings from him. He has pretty average control (3.5 BB/9), pretty average strikeouts (6.3 K/9 over his last 6 years), and he is a big flyball pitcher (33% ground balls last year). The worry here is that his home run per fly ball rate was significantly lower than his career average, and it's a difficult stat to control. There's a discrepancy on the stat from baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com, but my guess is that fangraphs probably does not includes line drives as fly balls while baseball-reference does. BR makes comparison simpler, so for simplicity's sake, we'll use that. Last year, Chen had a 6.9% HR/FB rate, while the MLB average is 7.9%...and Chen's career average has been 10.7%. Over an entire season, that's a big difference.*
*If you adjust his HR/FB rate to his career average, instead of giving up 17 home runs, he would have given up about 30, and all other things being equal, if each extra home run were solo (unlikely) his ERA would be 5.00 instead of 4.17. Interestingly, only .01 different from his xFIP.
Now maybe Chen figured something out last year. Let's hope. He'll be serviceable as a starter this year and someone had to fill in this year before the prospects are ready. May as well have someone familiar with the organization that provides great clubhouse chemistry too. If we're lucky, his spot in the rotation will be taken by one of the kids before the end of the year (same as Francis and Davies). The biggest plus is the additions of Francis and Chen guarantee the rotation will be dirt cheap and we have no business spending money anywhere but in the draft and in far-off lands this year.
Gil Meche's Unexpected Retirement- Out of nowhere a little bit ago, Gil Meche retired. When the Royals originally signed him to that 5 year, $55 million contract it was widely criticized and mocked by the baseball world. Of course, the Royals had offered one more year than other competitors and basically the same cash per year. It was mostly made fun of because it was the Royals he chose to sign with. Toronto's GM at the time, J.P. Ricciardi (one of the worst GMs in recent memory, to put it mildly) criticized Meche after losing out on the bidding, saying "When a guy talks about coming to our place where he has a chance to win and compete against the Yankees and the Red Sox, and then he goes to a place like Kansas City, that's an eye-opener." He accused Meche of not wanting to compete... like the Blue Jays were going to compete in 2007. There's a reason he couldn't hold the job and now works for the sadly-beyond-comically-dysfunctional Mets.
Now, having followed Gil Meche in his time with the Royals, it was clear to me he was a man of character. And now people are saying that the $12 million he left on the table (not even agreeing to a settlement!) is the most money anyone in baseball has ever walked away from. The proof is in the pudding (for the curious like myself, the origin of the phrase). Gil could've pitched from the bullpen, or he could have gone on the DL and taken the money, no questions asked. The Royals made the deal, and have to live with the consequences. Plenty of players have done exactly that. But Gil felt that he couldn't earn the money, so he wouldn't take it. That's a lot of moral fortitude and indescribable kindness to an organization that most agree ruined his arm. Trey Hillman and Nick Schwartz, the trainer, allowed Meche to finish out a complete game in 2009, throwing 132 pitches in the process, which is not the issue. The issue is that Meche blew up over the next two starts, a combined 13 runs in 8.1 IP. Then it came out that Meche had something the organization called "dead arm," then they said he was good to go, and the Royals allowed him to make his next start, claiming they would "watch his pitch count." Naturally, it hit 121 in that start--an especially high number if you are trying to make sure a pitcher doesn't injure himself. In his next start, he threw 114 pitches. They punished him by making him go through one more miserable start (8 runs, 6 earned, in 3.2 IP) before he went on the DL for a month and then got crushed again at the end of the season. Some presumably delusional Trey Hillman apologists say that Gil Meche told them he wanted to start; he wanted to keep going. Of course he did. That's what pitchers do. They never want to be taken out. It's the manager and trainer's jobs to say NO when it's dangerous for them.
Gil Meche owed this organization NOTHING. But instead he gave it $12 million, and Moore has indicated he will be using it to help spending in the draft and in international scouting, promising to boost the farm system even more and keep The Process churning, which is the best (only?) way for the Royals to consistently compete. Gil Meche owed the organization nothing. But we owe him a great debt.*
*Too over the top? In any case, he's a great guy and I'll miss him seeing him out there. Joe Posnanski has also written about his effect on Zack Greinke, evidently Zack feels he owes a lot to Gil. The end of his time in Kansas City is sad and I wish it hadn't taken the turn it did. It does leave open a roster spot and a place in the bullpen this year for one of the prospects to slide into, which is nice.
Billy Butler signs a 4 year extension with a club option- This is the most exciting news of the off-season. Billy Butler's desire to stay with the club and be a leader (see quotes from the last post) made manifest in a deal that potentially buys out 2 years of free agency for Billy. The deal pays a total of $30 million (minus the club option--assuming it's taken it's $41.5 million) specifically: $3 million in 2011, $8 million 2012-2014, and a $12.5 million club option* for 2015 or $1 million buyout with $2 million signing bonus. Assuming Billy improves even a little bit on his current level of production through the contract, the $12.5 million club option will be an obvious choice (for example, fangraphs lists Billy's 2010 as worth approximately $13.8 million). If the Royals ever want to trade him before the end of the deal (for instance, if they decide to keep Hosmer and Ka'aihue at 1B/DH)** then they could probably receive a big haul in return for a very talented player on a very club friendly contract.
*For the uneducated, a club option simply gives the organization the choice whether to retain him at a given price for an extra year or not while the player has no say in the decision.
**The scenarios in order of likelihood as I see them are:
(1) Butler and Hosmer end up staying with Hosmer at 1B and Billy at DH, with Kila traded for something.
(2) Butler is DH, Kila plays 1B and Hosmer moves to the outfield.
(3) Butler is traded, Hosmer plays 1B and Kila is DH.
(4) The Royals sign Albert Pujols (which is not utter nonsense, the payroll allows for it and the hometown factor is there) and craziness ensues. We'll cross that bridge if we come to it. But I really like that I can even bring it up as a realistic option.
Billy is one of the great young hitters in the game. His OPS+ last year was 134, where 100 is a league average player. Butler's OPS over the last two seasons (.855) is matched by just 28 players in baseball, and of those, only Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, and himself are under 25. That's elite company. Players usually peak about 27-28. And he's signed for 4, potentially 5 years. The math looks good.
Point is, he should be a joy to watch for a long time. Granted the K doesn't make homering easy on anyone, but if Butler's power develops he could easily be one of the top players in the game. His walk rate and batting average have steadily increased over the last two years. In 2008, Billy walked 6.9% of the time, in 2009 he walked 8.6% of the time, and in 2010 he walked 10.2% of the time (league average is 8.7%). His batting average has risen from .275 to .301 to .317. He was just 11 hits short of the 200 plateau last year and I fully expect him to reach that at some point in the future.
.317/.388/.469. That is a pretty triple slash. Just for fun...(according to BR) an offense with 9 2010 Editions of Billy Butler and average pitching and defense would win 61.9% of the time. That translates to a record 100-62. Just for fun.
The only real complaint is the double plays, which he led the league in last year with 32... but if he starts hitting with more home run power, his GB rate should drop, and in turn the number of double plays should as well. Of course, there's some debate as to whether this would cost him average or not, but more power is worth a slight dip in average (especially because it makes pitchers more careful not to make a mistake, resulting in higher OBP as well).
It's strange... I feel like I should have more to say. But really, Billy is above average in just about every statistic other than speed, and he's 5 days younger than Lorenzo Cain, one of the prospects we received in the Greinke deal. The contract is a big win for the organization (and reasonable for Billy) but especially big for Dayton Moore, looking savvy with a move, even just a contract extension, on the big league level.
Pedro Feliz signs- This move worried me at first. It was a minor league deal but for $800k and he is old and almost totally without use. His main selling point has always been his defense, which dropped to 5 runs below average last year by UZR. His OBP was .240 last year. .240. That'd be bad if it was a BATTING AVERAGE. He slugged .293. But I think Dayton Moore is learning. He's explained it entirely as a depth move, an emergency backup in case something happens with Aviles, Betemit, or Getz (in which case Aviles would have to slide over to 2B leaving the team shallow at 3B until Moustakas is ready). And he's assured us that when Moustakas is ready, the job is his. So as terrible as Feliz may be, he's not a problem.
And you can take a deep breath, we're done! It was a fairly active off-season for the Royals, and we didn't even mention the #1 farm system ranking by Baseball America except in passing. But we got that too. I don't know how to say this...but it's kind of a big deal. It's being ranked up there with the best of the decade and it was only bolstered this off-season. Dayton didn't create any barriers or problems for the kids with any signings, so that's a nice step too. All in all, the off-season turned out, Zack Greinke or no, positive for the Royals. In four words, Dayton Moore's finest yet. The Process really gets to start this season, even if only a few of the prospects will get to play full-time in Kansas City in the beginning. The mill of the process grinds slowly but exceedingly fine.*
*I know what you're thinking. "Did he just quote Will Ferrell and an ancient Greek expression in the same paragraph?" Well, that's just the kind of versatility we bring here at BADARW.
Now that the off-season is summed up and over, I for one can't wait for the season to start. I'm looking forward to just reading the daily news from spring training in the paper every day. Forget the record this year. It's all about the kids.
Jeff Francis signs- The Francis signing was by all accounts a steal. I haven't heard a single bad word about it. Jeff Francis, a 30 year old lefty, has spent his entire career thus far with the Rockies but in 2008 he tore the labrum in his shoulder. He came back last year and despite his ERA climbing to 5.00, he appears to have been fully healed and ready to return. One would think that his ERA suffered some perhaps from pitching at Coors, but his ERA was actually slightly lower at home (4.86) than on the road (5.15)--a strange trend that has been a pattern his whole career. His ERA has looked a little high over the years, and he is going to the superior league which won't be healthy for it. But the Royals' defense, one of the worst in baseball last year*, was only a few percentage points (.004) below Colorado's and stands to improve significantly this year with Escobar at short, probably Kila at first, and [hopefully] Cain in center.
*The full list of defensive rankings can be found at Baseball Prospectus, here. The statistic, Defensive Efficiency, is relatively simple and basically equates to (1-BABIP allowed).
The best thing about the deal is probably the price: 1 year, $2 million guaranteed with $2 million in incentives for a lefty who was the Rockies number 1 starter the year they went to the World Series. He probably could've made more money elsewhere, but word is Francis wanted to work with McClure who was a coach in the Rockies minor league system when he was coming up, and knew he needed to re-establish himself in the league and was basically guaranteed to start in Kansas City.
Along with his high ERA last year, his K/9 rate was only 5.8 which isn't great, but the good news is his ground ball rate was up to 47% (a fairly high GB rate) from about 44% previously in his career. On top of that, his Left On Base % (Strand Rate, or LOB%) was very low at 64.5% last year. The average pitcher will probably have an LOB% around 70%-72% and its generally accepted as a number, like BABIP that represents luck to a degree, though, for instance, guys with lots of Ks will be able to strand runners more easily, giving them a naturally higher LOB%. Francis's LOB% has hovered around 70% for his career, so it's likely luck played a bit of a factor. On top of that, his control appeared better than ever, walking just 2 batters per 9 innings, which is very good. For a comparison, that's the exact same walk rate as Zack in his Cy Young season.
If I haven't thrown enough numbers at you yet... last year, Francis's xFIP (which as you will recall, is basically what a player's ERA should be, taking fielding out of the equation) was 3.94, the lowest of his career.
And he was just getting back into the swing of things after a long hiatus last year. Odds are he will be better this year. The Royals only have him on a one year deal, but Dayton Moore rang up a W here and can probably flip him to a contender at the deadline for a talented prospect. The consensus seems to be that Luke Hochevar will be given every opportunity to be the number 1 starter, but if Hoch sucks it up at spring training, the job will fall to Francis. Even for one year, he brings some excitement. The guy can pitch and we got him cheap.
Bruce Chen signs- The sentimental favorite. Many Royals fans are now familiar with the chant popularized by Will Ferrell, "C'MON CHEN!" Elegant in its simplicity, that phrase and Chen's own likability and sense of humor have made him a clubhouse and fan favorite. Chen is another lefty who also signed a one year deal for $2 million (with $1.5 million in incentives), but that's where his similarities to Francis end. However, he is similar to one of his former teammates in another way...
Last year, Bruce Chen and Zack Greinke had the same ERA.
Let me repeat that.
Last year, Bruce Chen and Zack Greinke had the same ERA. (4.17)
But that's also where their similarities end (and it might say more about Greinke last year than Chen). Chen's xFIP last year was 5.01 and he does not exactly have a history of success. He will turn 34 in June this season, so he's no spring chicken either but we can basically count on just below league average innings from him. He has pretty average control (3.5 BB/9), pretty average strikeouts (6.3 K/9 over his last 6 years), and he is a big flyball pitcher (33% ground balls last year). The worry here is that his home run per fly ball rate was significantly lower than his career average, and it's a difficult stat to control. There's a discrepancy on the stat from baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com, but my guess is that fangraphs probably does not includes line drives as fly balls while baseball-reference does. BR makes comparison simpler, so for simplicity's sake, we'll use that. Last year, Chen had a 6.9% HR/FB rate, while the MLB average is 7.9%...and Chen's career average has been 10.7%. Over an entire season, that's a big difference.*
*If you adjust his HR/FB rate to his career average, instead of giving up 17 home runs, he would have given up about 30, and all other things being equal, if each extra home run were solo (unlikely) his ERA would be 5.00 instead of 4.17. Interestingly, only .01 different from his xFIP.
Now maybe Chen figured something out last year. Let's hope. He'll be serviceable as a starter this year and someone had to fill in this year before the prospects are ready. May as well have someone familiar with the organization that provides great clubhouse chemistry too. If we're lucky, his spot in the rotation will be taken by one of the kids before the end of the year (same as Francis and Davies). The biggest plus is the additions of Francis and Chen guarantee the rotation will be dirt cheap and we have no business spending money anywhere but in the draft and in far-off lands this year.
Gil Meche's Unexpected Retirement- Out of nowhere a little bit ago, Gil Meche retired. When the Royals originally signed him to that 5 year, $55 million contract it was widely criticized and mocked by the baseball world. Of course, the Royals had offered one more year than other competitors and basically the same cash per year. It was mostly made fun of because it was the Royals he chose to sign with. Toronto's GM at the time, J.P. Ricciardi (one of the worst GMs in recent memory, to put it mildly) criticized Meche after losing out on the bidding, saying "When a guy talks about coming to our place where he has a chance to win and compete against the Yankees and the Red Sox, and then he goes to a place like Kansas City, that's an eye-opener." He accused Meche of not wanting to compete... like the Blue Jays were going to compete in 2007. There's a reason he couldn't hold the job and now works for the sadly-beyond-comically-dysfunctional Mets.
Now, having followed Gil Meche in his time with the Royals, it was clear to me he was a man of character. And now people are saying that the $12 million he left on the table (not even agreeing to a settlement!) is the most money anyone in baseball has ever walked away from. The proof is in the pudding (for the curious like myself, the origin of the phrase). Gil could've pitched from the bullpen, or he could have gone on the DL and taken the money, no questions asked. The Royals made the deal, and have to live with the consequences. Plenty of players have done exactly that. But Gil felt that he couldn't earn the money, so he wouldn't take it. That's a lot of moral fortitude and indescribable kindness to an organization that most agree ruined his arm. Trey Hillman and Nick Schwartz, the trainer, allowed Meche to finish out a complete game in 2009, throwing 132 pitches in the process, which is not the issue. The issue is that Meche blew up over the next two starts, a combined 13 runs in 8.1 IP. Then it came out that Meche had something the organization called "dead arm," then they said he was good to go, and the Royals allowed him to make his next start, claiming they would "watch his pitch count." Naturally, it hit 121 in that start--an especially high number if you are trying to make sure a pitcher doesn't injure himself. In his next start, he threw 114 pitches. They punished him by making him go through one more miserable start (8 runs, 6 earned, in 3.2 IP) before he went on the DL for a month and then got crushed again at the end of the season. Some presumably delusional Trey Hillman apologists say that Gil Meche told them he wanted to start; he wanted to keep going. Of course he did. That's what pitchers do. They never want to be taken out. It's the manager and trainer's jobs to say NO when it's dangerous for them.
Gil Meche owed this organization NOTHING. But instead he gave it $12 million, and Moore has indicated he will be using it to help spending in the draft and in international scouting, promising to boost the farm system even more and keep The Process churning, which is the best (only?) way for the Royals to consistently compete. Gil Meche owed the organization nothing. But we owe him a great debt.*
*Too over the top? In any case, he's a great guy and I'll miss him seeing him out there. Joe Posnanski has also written about his effect on Zack Greinke, evidently Zack feels he owes a lot to Gil. The end of his time in Kansas City is sad and I wish it hadn't taken the turn it did. It does leave open a roster spot and a place in the bullpen this year for one of the prospects to slide into, which is nice.
Billy Butler signs a 4 year extension with a club option- This is the most exciting news of the off-season. Billy Butler's desire to stay with the club and be a leader (see quotes from the last post) made manifest in a deal that potentially buys out 2 years of free agency for Billy. The deal pays a total of $30 million (minus the club option--assuming it's taken it's $41.5 million) specifically: $3 million in 2011, $8 million 2012-2014, and a $12.5 million club option* for 2015 or $1 million buyout with $2 million signing bonus. Assuming Billy improves even a little bit on his current level of production through the contract, the $12.5 million club option will be an obvious choice (for example, fangraphs lists Billy's 2010 as worth approximately $13.8 million). If the Royals ever want to trade him before the end of the deal (for instance, if they decide to keep Hosmer and Ka'aihue at 1B/DH)** then they could probably receive a big haul in return for a very talented player on a very club friendly contract.
*For the uneducated, a club option simply gives the organization the choice whether to retain him at a given price for an extra year or not while the player has no say in the decision.
**The scenarios in order of likelihood as I see them are:
(1) Butler and Hosmer end up staying with Hosmer at 1B and Billy at DH, with Kila traded for something.
(2) Butler is DH, Kila plays 1B and Hosmer moves to the outfield.
(3) Butler is traded, Hosmer plays 1B and Kila is DH.
(4) The Royals sign Albert Pujols (which is not utter nonsense, the payroll allows for it and the hometown factor is there) and craziness ensues. We'll cross that bridge if we come to it. But I really like that I can even bring it up as a realistic option.
Billy is one of the great young hitters in the game. His OPS+ last year was 134, where 100 is a league average player. Butler's OPS over the last two seasons (.855) is matched by just 28 players in baseball, and of those, only Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, and himself are under 25. That's elite company. Players usually peak about 27-28. And he's signed for 4, potentially 5 years. The math looks good.
Point is, he should be a joy to watch for a long time. Granted the K doesn't make homering easy on anyone, but if Butler's power develops he could easily be one of the top players in the game. His walk rate and batting average have steadily increased over the last two years. In 2008, Billy walked 6.9% of the time, in 2009 he walked 8.6% of the time, and in 2010 he walked 10.2% of the time (league average is 8.7%). His batting average has risen from .275 to .301 to .317. He was just 11 hits short of the 200 plateau last year and I fully expect him to reach that at some point in the future.
.317/.388/.469. That is a pretty triple slash. Just for fun...(according to BR) an offense with 9 2010 Editions of Billy Butler and average pitching and defense would win 61.9% of the time. That translates to a record 100-62. Just for fun.
The only real complaint is the double plays, which he led the league in last year with 32... but if he starts hitting with more home run power, his GB rate should drop, and in turn the number of double plays should as well. Of course, there's some debate as to whether this would cost him average or not, but more power is worth a slight dip in average (especially because it makes pitchers more careful not to make a mistake, resulting in higher OBP as well).
It's strange... I feel like I should have more to say. But really, Billy is above average in just about every statistic other than speed, and he's 5 days younger than Lorenzo Cain, one of the prospects we received in the Greinke deal. The contract is a big win for the organization (and reasonable for Billy) but especially big for Dayton Moore, looking savvy with a move, even just a contract extension, on the big league level.
Pedro Feliz signs- This move worried me at first. It was a minor league deal but for $800k and he is old and almost totally without use. His main selling point has always been his defense, which dropped to 5 runs below average last year by UZR. His OBP was .240 last year. .240. That'd be bad if it was a BATTING AVERAGE. He slugged .293. But I think Dayton Moore is learning. He's explained it entirely as a depth move, an emergency backup in case something happens with Aviles, Betemit, or Getz (in which case Aviles would have to slide over to 2B leaving the team shallow at 3B until Moustakas is ready). And he's assured us that when Moustakas is ready, the job is his. So as terrible as Feliz may be, he's not a problem.
And you can take a deep breath, we're done! It was a fairly active off-season for the Royals, and we didn't even mention the #1 farm system ranking by Baseball America except in passing. But we got that too. I don't know how to say this...but it's kind of a big deal. It's being ranked up there with the best of the decade and it was only bolstered this off-season. Dayton didn't create any barriers or problems for the kids with any signings, so that's a nice step too. All in all, the off-season turned out, Zack Greinke or no, positive for the Royals. In four words, Dayton Moore's finest yet. The Process really gets to start this season, even if only a few of the prospects will get to play full-time in Kansas City in the beginning. The mill of the process grinds slowly but exceedingly fine.*
*I know what you're thinking. "Did he just quote Will Ferrell and an ancient Greek expression in the same paragraph?" Well, that's just the kind of versatility we bring here at BADARW.
Now that the off-season is summed up and over, I for one can't wait for the season to start. I'm looking forward to just reading the daily news from spring training in the paper every day. Forget the record this year. It's all about the kids.
Feb 3, 2011
Less is Moore (The Offseason in Review!) Part 2
Quick and Unrelated: Rob Neyer, a blogger and writer for ESPN over the last 15 years is leaving the network. He has been hired as editor at www.sbnation.com though so there's that. He's been one of the best and most influential people over there since he began, a pioneer of internet sportswriting and he also happens to be a sabermetrician and Royals fan. It's an interesting trick of fate that a significant portion of the sabermetric community are Royals fans--it's certainly one of the most saber-friendly fan bases of the 30. It follows basic tragicomedy that the Royals front office is one of the least. In this case, correlation may be causation.
Anyway.
The most defining and controversial part of the off-season was the Zack Greinke trade. It wasn't anything any Royals fans particularly wanted- certainly Moore and Yost didn't want it either. But Zack did, and when GMDM's hand was forced, he made sure the deal fell in line with the plan. So without further adeu.
The Zack Greinke Trade- The Greinke trade saga started innocently enough, at least on its face. The Royals informed clubs they were willing to listen to offers from anyone on any player, but reportedly would need to be "blown away" to trade their Cy Young winner. As time went on and the rumor mill kept rolling, it seemed like there might be more to it than that. There were reports from several different places that Zack was demanding certain terms, certain locations he wanted to go and that he would not play in Kansas City anymore (a possible threat to skip spring training floated to the surface after the deal went through). I was skeptical personally because there were never any quotes directly from Zack saying any of that. Evidently my skepticism was unfounded.
Before the season ended, Zack was quoted as saying, "There's no reason for me to get real excited about [the prospects] because the chance of more than one of them making a major impact by the time my contract is up is pretty slim." Zack had two years left on his deal, which led me to believe this quote from Zack near the end of the season didn't carry any real significance. The Royals had two years to prove to him that The Process was worth it, and four opportunities to trade him along the way if they were overwhelmed by an offer (this off-season, trade deadline, next off-season, next trade deadline). As it turned out, the Royals took the first opportunity, though I can't blame them for it. It's doubtful if there was really even a choice. After the deal went through, the rumors of Zack demanding the trade were basically confirmed and had he not been traded, the saga appeared primed to turn ugly.
Outside of the rumored threats not to attend spring training, there were questions as to whether Zack would maintain his razor-sharp focus (and thus his high value) on a team not in contention, or more specfically, when he wasn't playing for anything--in a division race or a Cy Young award.
"The main reason I wanted to get out, I mean, preferred to get out of Kansas City is I wanted to be on a team that was trying to win this year...Just really wanted to be in a place where they were playing to win games right away." (Quotes from here) Zack's competitive streak is well known but so is his aloofness. In 2010, Zack appeared disinterested at times and his numbers reflect it. His numbers in 2009 even reflect a similar idea. I don't want it to seem like I'm questioning his heart, though. The season is a grind and I think Zack rises when he sees a real challenge.
Through May 26th 2009 (The Royals in contention, off to the infamous 18-11 start): Greinke carried a .84 ERA with 81 Ks and only 12 BBs in 75 innings. An ERA under 1 run per game, through 10 games. A K/BB ratio of 6.75. 4 complete games. Name your statistic, Zack was historic. It simply can't be overstated. Arguably the best start to a season in the history of whatever (thank you, anonymous Royals official). After Zack's start on the 26th, the Royals hit 23-23 and didn't reach .500 for the rest of the season.
From May 31st (his next start) to August 8th: an ERA of 3.84 with no complete games. Obviously still nothing to slouch at, but a significant outlier from the beginning and end of the season.
August 14th to end of season (as the Cy Young race is heating up): an ERA of 1.54 and his final complete game.
Zack's 2010 obviously was nothing like his 2009 (and everyone knew that was unrepeatable). On top of that, the Royals were never in contention from the start. For the majority of the season, his ERA hovered in the high 3s. However, his ERA hit 5.07 over his last 13 starts from July 26th til season's end, and he had 68 Ks with 29 BBs over those 87 innings. His K rate for the season dropped to 7.4 K/9 for the first time since pre-2007. Any advanced statistics aside (and his Fielder Independent Pitching, FIP, a defense-independent statistic, suggests his ERA was a bit unlucky for the season), it looked as if Zack's focus may have waned as the doldrums of another losing season with no hope from the start headed to a close.
I can see why the Royals may have wanted to deal him sooner rather than later, all these things considered. Now, with Greinke and DeJesus traded in the same off-season, the two most recognizable faces of the franchise are gone. Probably the majority of Royals fans chose one of them as their favorite player, with the exception of some Billy Butler fans and a Soria fan or two. A decent portion of the fan-base is justifiably disappointed that those two are gone. However, dealing Dave made the most sense for Mission 2012/2013 as explained in the last post. And unfortunately, Zack clearly didn't want to be apart of what was going on in Kansas City anymore, and I can't be mad at the team for that. In any case, that basically leaves Billy as the de facto Face of the Franchise.
Billy's words: "You don't want somebody to be somewhere they don't want to. That being said, Zack made it public that he didn't want to be here anymore. As the Kansas City Royals, you don't want that around. It's not good for your team." Billy in another interview said that he's "not trying to be" the face of the franchise, but it's obvious to him and everyone else that he's got to lead now. "I’m prepared to do whatever is best for this organization moving forward. (I want) to make every person in the clubhouse better, as a player, as a person, whatever it takes. If I could be half of what Mike Sweeney was, I’ll be happy with it. I’m just striving to be ... that type of guy for this organization." His words say it all well enough.
And soon enough, the young guys will arrive and they are generally reputed as quality people (see: Mike Moustakas, math homework). They'll fill the void.
Now that we've spent 1000 words on why it was okay to deal Zack, let's move on to the return. Obviously we can't know for sure what other teams offered, but we have some ideas about a few (Washington probably offered a package including Jordan Zimmerman, Michael Burgess, and a couple of others). The overall reaction to the trade is that it wasn't bad, but underwhelming. However, when compared to other trades of pitching aces, it appears to have been a fairly favorable return. Rany Jazayerli does a very extensive comparison of such trades here. I'll stick to analyzing the prospects.
1. Alcides Escobar- Escobar is the biggest name of the four prospects, having been as high as the #12 prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2010 season according to Baseball America. His debut performance in the majors was fairly unimpressive: .235/.288/.326 in 145 games. However, he was only 23 at the time and his BABIP* suggests he was significantly unlucky. Escobar's actual BABIP last year was .264, but his xBABIP was .311, a difference of nearly 50 points! His numbers thus probably should've been closer to .260/.305/.340. Still not that great, but for a 23 year old SS in his first extensive experience in the majors, its perfectly acceptable. When compared to Betancourt (and that is another huge plus of the deal--Milwaukee had to take him with Greinke), they are at worst a wash offensively. Betancourt showed surprising power last year, slugging .405 with 16 HRs and 29 doubles. But his OBP was a miserable .288, also known as the same as 23 year old Escobar but with the extra padding of .24 points of batting average. On top of that, Betancourt is without question the slowest shortstop in baseball, while Escobar hit 10 triples last year and is a talented base-stealer: in the minors, he stole 176 bases over 5 years (just over 29 per year). But Escobar wasn't targeted for his offensive value anyway. Escobar with a little improvement (and his upside is definitely still there) would be a clearly better offensive player than Betancourt especially given his unfortunate luck last year.
*BABIP stands for "Batting Average on Balls in Play." It measures how often a ball put in play (home runs aren't counted) falls for a hit. BABIP is often used to see if a player's batting average is sustainable, if he's been lucky or unlucky at the plate. Obviously this number will vary depending on the player (though average BABIP is assumed to be around .300), based on speed, ground ball/fly ball ratio, line drive %, the player's home park, and many other factors. Given these different factors, xBABIP is what a player's BABIP should be, his expected BABIP. If a player's xBABIP is much higher than their actual BABIP, the player was unlucky and could normally be expected to hit better. If the xBABIP is much lower than their actual BABIP, the player was lucky and shouldn't be expected to hit quite as well in the future.
Escobar has been widely regarded as a defensive savant at shortstop, and in his rookie year his UZR* was 3.8 which is about 4 runs saved above average. That's not eye-popping, but it is fairly above average and it's generally accepted that it takes about three years worth of defensive statistics to be accurate anyway. Royals fans will notice a huge difference immediately from Betancourt's average of -12.5 (!) over the last three years. That's 16 extra runs saved per year and honestly that's probably on the conservative side given Escobar's reputation. The rule of thumb is generally that 10 runs equals 1 win for reasons I'll readily admit I haven't looked into, but that means on the conservative side Escobar will add almost 2 wins to the Royals over Betancourt on defense alone.
*UZR is Ultimate Zone Rating. It's one of the more advanced defensive metrics and the one I will be using because I don't have access to Dewan's Plus/Minus system. UZR is a counting stat and adds or subtracts based on runs saved or cost compared to a 'league average' player at that position. Runs saved based on range, arm, and double plays (mostly for infielders, naturally) are calculated and then added together.
Put the most simple way I can, Alcides Escobar at 23 years old is already the best shortstop the Royals have had since I was born.
2. Lorenzo Cain- Of the four pieces the Royals got in return, Cain is the most exciting to me. In 43 games last year (3 too many games for him to qualify as a rookie this year), Cain hit .306/.348/.415. His BABIP suggests some luck, but he'll probably walk more than his measly 5.7% walk rate (league average is 8.7%) as well. Cain's main asset is his speed- he and Escobar were the pieces that Moore wanted specifically. Moore asked for up the middle help on defense and he absolutely got it. Cain's UZR over that time was 2.0 and extrapolated over 150 games would be 7.6. Again, the sample size is miniscule, but most of that UZR is based on his range which by all accounts is otherworldly. His instincts are also reportedly very good. He stole 7 bases over the time frame and was only caught stealing once. When let loose, he and Escobar could be downright frightening for other teams on the basepaths. Cain will turn 25 at the beginning of the season this year, which is a little older than I wish he was, but obviously there is still time for growth. Cain looks very promising from every angle and I'm excited to get to watch him. My only worry is what I expressed in the last post-- that Yost will start Melky Cabrera over him.
3. Jeremy Jeffress- Jeffress is a very different beast than the first two prospects. Jeffress is a 23 year old relief pitcher who has had control problems and I don't mean on the field (but he's had that too). Jeffress was and may still be, way into marijuana. He was suspended in the minors for violating the drug policy, and was one strike (the policy is three strikes total) away from being completely banned from the game (he did serve a 100 game suspension). Jeffress has presumably quit using it, though the drug isn't tested for or banned in the majors for some seemingly inconsistent and strange reason. He also had control problems on the field, however, posting a walk rate of 5.5 BB/9 over his entire time in the minors. This is not atypical among fireballers, and Jeffress has hit as high as 102 mph on the gun. He has a power curve to go with his fastball that complements it well. Evidently future HOFer Trevor Hoffman took Jeffress under his wing some last year though and may have helped him get things figured out in his life and with his walk rate. In the majors it was still 5.4, but that was in a very sample size of 10 innings. In the minors last year, it dropped to 3.3 per 9 innings, and he averaged 12 K/9. He's obviously a back of the bullpen candidate and will either start in AAA or take his place as the 7th or 8th inning guy this year (probably 7th given Tim Collins's ridiculous 13.3 K/9 over his entire career in the minors). If Jeffress really does have things figured out, he could be a very valuable bullpen piece and if he doesn't, it hardly makes or breaks anything. The kid has potential to be really good though. Hopefully he gets a chance to talk to newly hired minor league coach Willie Aikens, a former Royal who struggled with drugs throughout a career that was ultimately derailed by them. Aikens has since turned his life around and gives all the credit to God, becoming a Christian during his time in prison. A good summary of the story by Sam Mellinger can be found here. I have no doubt he could help Jeffress in all sorts of ways.
4. Jake Odorizzi- Odorizzi is the youngest (20) of the four prospects and the least known quantity of the bunch. However, he was the linchpin to the deal that the Royals needed in order to accept the offer from Milwaukee and to complete the decimation of the Brewers farm system, now the worst in the majors. Just from looking at the numbers you can see Odorizzi has stupendous control (135 Ks and 40 BBs in 120.2 IP in A ball last year) and the scouts confirm it. He has atleast two plus pitches (though I've heard three) in his fastball which can hit the mid-90s, his slider, and curveball, though his change up needs work. Baseball Prospectus believes he has the stuff to be a fringe #2 starter in the bigs if all works out. He was the top pitching prospect for the Brewers and falls in at about the 5th or 6th best pitching prospect for the Royals and barely in the top 10 overall, which is incredible given that, in the words of Baseball Prospectus, "he'd be an easy top-three selection in most organizations." But Royals fans are used to the borderline absurdity of the talent in the farm system by now. The second best isn't close. Odorizzi's progress will deserve being watched, and if all goes well we'll probably see him at the K around 2013.
Overall I'd say the deal worked out pretty well. We lost an ace, but gained two valuable every day starters with plus defense and plenty of potential, a strong back of the bullpen candidate, and a young pitcher with good control and a high ceiling. Better value would be hard to find. Zack was and still is my favorite pitcher (bar none), and he'll definitely benefit from going to the inferior league. I'm sure he's excited to play for a team with a good offense and potential to compete and especially to get to hit. Unfortunately for him, he'll still have Betancourt at shortstop.
Coming Up
I had previously assumed the Royals were done making moves before spring training, but Dayton Moore has a habit ofmaking fools out of us all... well, he has his habits, anyway. The Royals signed Pedro Feliz to a minor league deal worth $800k. Not exactly exciting but its okay. Just a depth move. But we'll get to that, Meche's retirement, the Francis and Chen signings, the Butler extension, and maybe a little talk about the Baseball America rankings next time.
Anyway.
The most defining and controversial part of the off-season was the Zack Greinke trade. It wasn't anything any Royals fans particularly wanted- certainly Moore and Yost didn't want it either. But Zack did, and when GMDM's hand was forced, he made sure the deal fell in line with the plan. So without further adeu.
The Zack Greinke Trade- The Greinke trade saga started innocently enough, at least on its face. The Royals informed clubs they were willing to listen to offers from anyone on any player, but reportedly would need to be "blown away" to trade their Cy Young winner. As time went on and the rumor mill kept rolling, it seemed like there might be more to it than that. There were reports from several different places that Zack was demanding certain terms, certain locations he wanted to go and that he would not play in Kansas City anymore (a possible threat to skip spring training floated to the surface after the deal went through). I was skeptical personally because there were never any quotes directly from Zack saying any of that. Evidently my skepticism was unfounded.
Before the season ended, Zack was quoted as saying, "There's no reason for me to get real excited about [the prospects] because the chance of more than one of them making a major impact by the time my contract is up is pretty slim." Zack had two years left on his deal, which led me to believe this quote from Zack near the end of the season didn't carry any real significance. The Royals had two years to prove to him that The Process was worth it, and four opportunities to trade him along the way if they were overwhelmed by an offer (this off-season, trade deadline, next off-season, next trade deadline). As it turned out, the Royals took the first opportunity, though I can't blame them for it. It's doubtful if there was really even a choice. After the deal went through, the rumors of Zack demanding the trade were basically confirmed and had he not been traded, the saga appeared primed to turn ugly.
Outside of the rumored threats not to attend spring training, there were questions as to whether Zack would maintain his razor-sharp focus (and thus his high value) on a team not in contention, or more specfically, when he wasn't playing for anything--in a division race or a Cy Young award.
"The main reason I wanted to get out, I mean, preferred to get out of Kansas City is I wanted to be on a team that was trying to win this year...Just really wanted to be in a place where they were playing to win games right away." (Quotes from here) Zack's competitive streak is well known but so is his aloofness. In 2010, Zack appeared disinterested at times and his numbers reflect it. His numbers in 2009 even reflect a similar idea. I don't want it to seem like I'm questioning his heart, though. The season is a grind and I think Zack rises when he sees a real challenge.
Through May 26th 2009 (The Royals in contention, off to the infamous 18-11 start): Greinke carried a .84 ERA with 81 Ks and only 12 BBs in 75 innings. An ERA under 1 run per game, through 10 games. A K/BB ratio of 6.75. 4 complete games. Name your statistic, Zack was historic. It simply can't be overstated. Arguably the best start to a season in the history of whatever (thank you, anonymous Royals official). After Zack's start on the 26th, the Royals hit 23-23 and didn't reach .500 for the rest of the season.
From May 31st (his next start) to August 8th: an ERA of 3.84 with no complete games. Obviously still nothing to slouch at, but a significant outlier from the beginning and end of the season.
August 14th to end of season (as the Cy Young race is heating up): an ERA of 1.54 and his final complete game.
Zack's 2010 obviously was nothing like his 2009 (and everyone knew that was unrepeatable). On top of that, the Royals were never in contention from the start. For the majority of the season, his ERA hovered in the high 3s. However, his ERA hit 5.07 over his last 13 starts from July 26th til season's end, and he had 68 Ks with 29 BBs over those 87 innings. His K rate for the season dropped to 7.4 K/9 for the first time since pre-2007. Any advanced statistics aside (and his Fielder Independent Pitching, FIP, a defense-independent statistic, suggests his ERA was a bit unlucky for the season), it looked as if Zack's focus may have waned as the doldrums of another losing season with no hope from the start headed to a close.
I can see why the Royals may have wanted to deal him sooner rather than later, all these things considered. Now, with Greinke and DeJesus traded in the same off-season, the two most recognizable faces of the franchise are gone. Probably the majority of Royals fans chose one of them as their favorite player, with the exception of some Billy Butler fans and a Soria fan or two. A decent portion of the fan-base is justifiably disappointed that those two are gone. However, dealing Dave made the most sense for Mission 2012/2013 as explained in the last post. And unfortunately, Zack clearly didn't want to be apart of what was going on in Kansas City anymore, and I can't be mad at the team for that. In any case, that basically leaves Billy as the de facto Face of the Franchise.
Billy's words: "You don't want somebody to be somewhere they don't want to. That being said, Zack made it public that he didn't want to be here anymore. As the Kansas City Royals, you don't want that around. It's not good for your team." Billy in another interview said that he's "not trying to be" the face of the franchise, but it's obvious to him and everyone else that he's got to lead now. "I’m prepared to do whatever is best for this organization moving forward. (I want) to make every person in the clubhouse better, as a player, as a person, whatever it takes. If I could be half of what Mike Sweeney was, I’ll be happy with it. I’m just striving to be ... that type of guy for this organization." His words say it all well enough.
And soon enough, the young guys will arrive and they are generally reputed as quality people (see: Mike Moustakas, math homework). They'll fill the void.
Now that we've spent 1000 words on why it was okay to deal Zack, let's move on to the return. Obviously we can't know for sure what other teams offered, but we have some ideas about a few (Washington probably offered a package including Jordan Zimmerman, Michael Burgess, and a couple of others). The overall reaction to the trade is that it wasn't bad, but underwhelming. However, when compared to other trades of pitching aces, it appears to have been a fairly favorable return. Rany Jazayerli does a very extensive comparison of such trades here. I'll stick to analyzing the prospects.
1. Alcides Escobar- Escobar is the biggest name of the four prospects, having been as high as the #12 prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2010 season according to Baseball America. His debut performance in the majors was fairly unimpressive: .235/.288/.326 in 145 games. However, he was only 23 at the time and his BABIP* suggests he was significantly unlucky. Escobar's actual BABIP last year was .264, but his xBABIP was .311, a difference of nearly 50 points! His numbers thus probably should've been closer to .260/.305/.340. Still not that great, but for a 23 year old SS in his first extensive experience in the majors, its perfectly acceptable. When compared to Betancourt (and that is another huge plus of the deal--Milwaukee had to take him with Greinke), they are at worst a wash offensively. Betancourt showed surprising power last year, slugging .405 with 16 HRs and 29 doubles. But his OBP was a miserable .288, also known as the same as 23 year old Escobar but with the extra padding of .24 points of batting average. On top of that, Betancourt is without question the slowest shortstop in baseball, while Escobar hit 10 triples last year and is a talented base-stealer: in the minors, he stole 176 bases over 5 years (just over 29 per year). But Escobar wasn't targeted for his offensive value anyway. Escobar with a little improvement (and his upside is definitely still there) would be a clearly better offensive player than Betancourt especially given his unfortunate luck last year.
*BABIP stands for "Batting Average on Balls in Play." It measures how often a ball put in play (home runs aren't counted) falls for a hit. BABIP is often used to see if a player's batting average is sustainable, if he's been lucky or unlucky at the plate. Obviously this number will vary depending on the player (though average BABIP is assumed to be around .300), based on speed, ground ball/fly ball ratio, line drive %, the player's home park, and many other factors. Given these different factors, xBABIP is what a player's BABIP should be, his expected BABIP. If a player's xBABIP is much higher than their actual BABIP, the player was unlucky and could normally be expected to hit better. If the xBABIP is much lower than their actual BABIP, the player was lucky and shouldn't be expected to hit quite as well in the future.
Escobar has been widely regarded as a defensive savant at shortstop, and in his rookie year his UZR* was 3.8 which is about 4 runs saved above average. That's not eye-popping, but it is fairly above average and it's generally accepted that it takes about three years worth of defensive statistics to be accurate anyway. Royals fans will notice a huge difference immediately from Betancourt's average of -12.5 (!) over the last three years. That's 16 extra runs saved per year and honestly that's probably on the conservative side given Escobar's reputation. The rule of thumb is generally that 10 runs equals 1 win for reasons I'll readily admit I haven't looked into, but that means on the conservative side Escobar will add almost 2 wins to the Royals over Betancourt on defense alone.
*UZR is Ultimate Zone Rating. It's one of the more advanced defensive metrics and the one I will be using because I don't have access to Dewan's Plus/Minus system. UZR is a counting stat and adds or subtracts based on runs saved or cost compared to a 'league average' player at that position. Runs saved based on range, arm, and double plays (mostly for infielders, naturally) are calculated and then added together.
Put the most simple way I can, Alcides Escobar at 23 years old is already the best shortstop the Royals have had since I was born.
2. Lorenzo Cain- Of the four pieces the Royals got in return, Cain is the most exciting to me. In 43 games last year (3 too many games for him to qualify as a rookie this year), Cain hit .306/.348/.415. His BABIP suggests some luck, but he'll probably walk more than his measly 5.7% walk rate (league average is 8.7%) as well. Cain's main asset is his speed- he and Escobar were the pieces that Moore wanted specifically. Moore asked for up the middle help on defense and he absolutely got it. Cain's UZR over that time was 2.0 and extrapolated over 150 games would be 7.6. Again, the sample size is miniscule, but most of that UZR is based on his range which by all accounts is otherworldly. His instincts are also reportedly very good. He stole 7 bases over the time frame and was only caught stealing once. When let loose, he and Escobar could be downright frightening for other teams on the basepaths. Cain will turn 25 at the beginning of the season this year, which is a little older than I wish he was, but obviously there is still time for growth. Cain looks very promising from every angle and I'm excited to get to watch him. My only worry is what I expressed in the last post-- that Yost will start Melky Cabrera over him.
3. Jeremy Jeffress- Jeffress is a very different beast than the first two prospects. Jeffress is a 23 year old relief pitcher who has had control problems and I don't mean on the field (but he's had that too). Jeffress was and may still be, way into marijuana. He was suspended in the minors for violating the drug policy, and was one strike (the policy is three strikes total) away from being completely banned from the game (he did serve a 100 game suspension). Jeffress has presumably quit using it, though the drug isn't tested for or banned in the majors for some seemingly inconsistent and strange reason. He also had control problems on the field, however, posting a walk rate of 5.5 BB/9 over his entire time in the minors. This is not atypical among fireballers, and Jeffress has hit as high as 102 mph on the gun. He has a power curve to go with his fastball that complements it well. Evidently future HOFer Trevor Hoffman took Jeffress under his wing some last year though and may have helped him get things figured out in his life and with his walk rate. In the majors it was still 5.4, but that was in a very sample size of 10 innings. In the minors last year, it dropped to 3.3 per 9 innings, and he averaged 12 K/9. He's obviously a back of the bullpen candidate and will either start in AAA or take his place as the 7th or 8th inning guy this year (probably 7th given Tim Collins's ridiculous 13.3 K/9 over his entire career in the minors). If Jeffress really does have things figured out, he could be a very valuable bullpen piece and if he doesn't, it hardly makes or breaks anything. The kid has potential to be really good though. Hopefully he gets a chance to talk to newly hired minor league coach Willie Aikens, a former Royal who struggled with drugs throughout a career that was ultimately derailed by them. Aikens has since turned his life around and gives all the credit to God, becoming a Christian during his time in prison. A good summary of the story by Sam Mellinger can be found here. I have no doubt he could help Jeffress in all sorts of ways.
4. Jake Odorizzi- Odorizzi is the youngest (20) of the four prospects and the least known quantity of the bunch. However, he was the linchpin to the deal that the Royals needed in order to accept the offer from Milwaukee and to complete the decimation of the Brewers farm system, now the worst in the majors. Just from looking at the numbers you can see Odorizzi has stupendous control (135 Ks and 40 BBs in 120.2 IP in A ball last year) and the scouts confirm it. He has atleast two plus pitches (though I've heard three) in his fastball which can hit the mid-90s, his slider, and curveball, though his change up needs work. Baseball Prospectus believes he has the stuff to be a fringe #2 starter in the bigs if all works out. He was the top pitching prospect for the Brewers and falls in at about the 5th or 6th best pitching prospect for the Royals and barely in the top 10 overall, which is incredible given that, in the words of Baseball Prospectus, "he'd be an easy top-three selection in most organizations." But Royals fans are used to the borderline absurdity of the talent in the farm system by now. The second best isn't close. Odorizzi's progress will deserve being watched, and if all goes well we'll probably see him at the K around 2013.
Overall I'd say the deal worked out pretty well. We lost an ace, but gained two valuable every day starters with plus defense and plenty of potential, a strong back of the bullpen candidate, and a young pitcher with good control and a high ceiling. Better value would be hard to find. Zack was and still is my favorite pitcher (bar none), and he'll definitely benefit from going to the inferior league. I'm sure he's excited to play for a team with a good offense and potential to compete and especially to get to hit. Unfortunately for him, he'll still have Betancourt at shortstop.
Coming Up
I had previously assumed the Royals were done making moves before spring training, but Dayton Moore has a habit of
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